A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.
A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.
In less calamitous defeats – scenarios based on current polling levels, and on a situation where there is a two percentage point swing in favour of the Tories – the proportion would be nearer to 30%, roughly where it is now.
I’d like one of those election defeats where the tories are no longer the official opposition party, and they can go and do what they like as they’ll be irrelevant.
So who would the opposition be then?
Lib Dems perhaps? Maybe the SNP doesn’t get wiped out, that would be interesting. I know it’s unlikely to happen, the UK is essentially a 2 party state at this point, but one can dream, right?
Lib Dems perhaps?
Don’t think so. Lib Dems did the whole student loan pledge U-turn a decade ago and the electorate haven’t forgiven them. Not even voting against ending our relationship with the EU or pledging to stop Brexit was enough for their forgiveness. Voters would rather be upset at them for student loans than to be in the EU 🙄.
All true. But the Lib Dems are the primary beneficiaries of a Tory collapse (as the Tories were the primary beneficiaries of a Lib Dem collapse). They’re duking it out in twice as many seats as Labour/Lib Dem marginals. Too nice to be Tories, too posh to be Labour is a big voting constituency, and it expands when the Tories make themselves too toxic for a big chunk of voters to stomach.
It’s not much of an opposition if it’s from the same political side though, is it?
The duopoly is boring and we need a new voting system to properly reflect the nation’s views, but you can’t have a centre-left government with a centre-left opposition, because there wouldn’t be any opposition!
Assuming the Tories go full nasty party mode that might keep them a few strongholds. However I suspect the challenge to Labour will be from the left who will claim the centerists Labour of Stamer are not left wing enough making it harder and harder to maintain a majority for successive terms. Eventually a Cameron like figure will have to start another detoxifying process to pull the Tories back to the centre when they are bored of not getting power.
All of our current UK political parties are covering a wide enough range amongst their membership that they can form an opposition with themselves, never mind with a separate party :)
Your personal calibration may differ, but I’d say Labour cover between Left and Centre-Right, Lib-Dems between Centre-Left and Centre-Right, and Tories between Centre-Right and Far Right.
LibDems aren’t the same political side. There’s more the two opinions In politics.
Might as well be at the moment. Two centrist liberal parties, except the Lib Dems are slightly more progressive in terms of stuff like voting reform
“You better not let us lose these elections or we’ll get even worse.”
OK byeeeeeee.
It will keep them out of power until they pull themselves back to the centre. Labour go off to the left when kicked out, Conservatives go off to the right when kicked out. Not going to be fun with the worry of Tory mirror Corybn. That’s going to be terrifying.
Unsurprising considering Labour has lurched largely to the right following defeat.
That’s not to say they are now right-wing but it’d be pretty accurate to describe this iteration of Labour, Starmer’s vision of Labour, a centrist party.
If I were a conservative I would be deeply concerned, given that Sunak appears to be totally inept, and that the Boris era has essentially purged the party of anyone that’s actually conservative. The party is essentially full of populist MP’s, and even in the fringes the best they can pull out for mayoral elections seems to be Trump supporters and Reform rejects.
Losing an election is probably the least of the Tories concerns right now. The best thing that can happen to the party is a near-total eradication of seats, enough to get the populists out and allow a true conservative to return to the fold. If I were a senior Tory member right now, I’d probably be in contact with someone like Rory Stewart, because he’s probably the best chance of a one-time senior Tory bringing the party back to the centre.
