Their model is saying what’s been apparent from eyeballing polls for a while: the election is close.
Anyone who heard that epic speech by President Word Salad over the weekend would agree:
electrocution is better than shark attack.
Amazingly, some of the marine conservation folks put out a serious response
Agree that dropping a battery into the ocean is safer than swimming with sharks.
Who would you rather unexpectedly run into while swimming in the ocean, a maga or a shark?
Both. I imagine me in a little cage; Trump and the shark both put their dukes up and fight to the death.
Polls are for pundits.
Vote in November.
Trump is favored? We’ve gone hollow.
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It’s right there, it’s when there’s a tie in the EC:
“In 4 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.”
Since the house has 5 more Republicans than Democrats, (and no Other) those are Trump wins.
The process is actually weirder than that. Each state’s delegation gets one vote, collectively. Republicans would probably still win. (It’s the new Congress that does the election rather than the current one but rural states count the same as California so Republicans have a built-in advantage.) They can only choose between the top 3 candidates.
For VP, the Senate votes — I think one vote per Senator, as per usual. So, if everything is the same post-election and a party-line vote, we’d have a Trump - Kamala Harris administration. She’d remain VP and cast the tying votes in the Senate but presumably wouldn’t do anything with the White House.
Also, if the House is deadlocked 25-25 on Inauguration Day, the current VP becomes President. So, we’d have President Kamala Harris until the House broke its deadlock.
The problem here is that I can’t read, you seem to have managed to get to my comment before I deleted it.
You are 100% correct though.
Polls.
Poles
