The advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding autos, sales rose a robust 1%, also against a 0.4% forecast. Both readings were the best monthly gains since January.
It seems as long as consumer spending remains strong the risk of recession is low despite the rapid Fed rate hikes.
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One thing I haven’t seen anyone discuss in the context of the current economic climate is that while we had near-0% effective rates from 2008 to 2022, we had sub-1% APRs on auto loans, sub-3% APRs on mortgages, and 0% APR payment plans through manufacturers and POS systems became common. Google, Apple, Amazon, Shopify, more, all implemented 0% APR payment options for devices and even general purchases for 6~12 month terms. I was looking at laptops just last week and notice Apple is still allowing 1 year 0% APR plans for them. The iPhone upgrade program doesn’t seem to have gone anywhere. It seems to me this is probably still a pretty big driver of inflated consumer spending - it’s objectively a better deal to not spend the money up front when the fed rate is 5.5%, money market funds are paying 5.4%, HYSAs are paying 5.1%, and inflation is 4%. Of course you should spend the money a year from now when it’s grown more and worth less.
It’s true that inflation presents an arbitrage opportunity, but I seriously doubt the average consumer is thinking with anything close to that level of sophistication. I mean, most consumers leave debt sitting on their credit card instead of paying it off when they can.
