edit: oops I thought I was linking to the article: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tariff-shockwave-leads-to-collapse-in-ocean-container-bookings
I read something that some people experienced the collapse of the Roman Empire as their local bridge going out and no one ever coming to fix it.
I think a lot of Americans are going to experience the collapse of the American empire as their favorite treats never getting to the store shelves.
Don’t American bridges fall down already? I guess the wait won’t be too long.
I think it’s highly optimistic to expect that, if anything it’s going to be more like the collapse of the Soviet empire, with weird successor state nonsense, some civil war, guns and violent crime everywhere, and those already in power going on a free for all kill each other and loot everything spree.
I mean to say, for most Americans who are not news aware, the first signs will be that they simply can’t get their treats anymore.
Even then, many of the more rural Americans will only ever have that experience. There’s not going to be guns and tanks rolling through Westboro, Wisconsin.
On the plus side, it’ll be good circumstances to create new anarchist structures to pick up the pieces.
The problem is that existing power structures will try to transfer their power to the new system, and it isn’t that hard for them to do that. A new anarchist communistic structure will have to fight the CIA and the US military’s various fragments, if it goes as it did in the Warsaw Pact.
White power movments are literally waiting for this moment. The outliers are the accelerationists but there far far more that have been preparing for generations to exploit the power vacuum.
A local anarchist group is no match for an well armed generation based organization.
and the marines are standing ready to uphold the constitution if it gets that bad.
Yeah, anyone trying to create an anarchist/communist utopian community will be quickly swallowed up be the Proud Boys who raid them for their food and guzzoline.
Trump definitely did not intent to do that - but this is a good thing for the environment. If we end up in a global shrinkflation, this might berge worst way to reduce our carbon footprint, but it will probably be the long term consequence.
Hurray for Trump’s idiocy!
Seriously though. I’ll sacrifice this capitalistic nonsense to save a habitable environment.
Goddang that gif makes me laugh
But what if, now hear me out, we tow the entire thing OUTSIDE the environment?
Yeah, I live in Korea and usually this time of year the air quality is absolutely shit. However, due to the trade war, some factories in eastern China have closed and this apparently led to the great aqi forecast the past week or so.
Shrinkflation is when somebody sells you less of a product for the same price.
What you mean is stagflation. That when you have high inflation and a shrinking economy.
At any rate this is really great news for the environment.
I want to agree, but this does not bode well for food trade. Less shipping overall means less economy of scale, which hurts everyones access to food.
This is exactly what I was about to say.
Is it me, or does this look absolutely scary for world trade as a whole?
There’s still a lot going on globally:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/
But I don’t expect the US to have a fun ride
This economist says there’s a 90% chance of a recession. Here’s the math.
During the 2018 trade war with China, the U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2% to 3%. Studies show that the impact on gross domestic product was between 0.25% and 0.7%.
Using the low end of the estimated impact, and Trump’s plan that at the moment calls for double-digit tariff rates, Slok says the negative impact on GDP in 2025 could be almost 4 percentage points — and that doesn’t even include the negative impact from uncertainty for consumer spending decisions and business planning.
So a 4% hit to GDP when GDP last year in the US increase by 2.8% does not sound good
I told friends and relatives in February that we’d be in a recession by the end of the year. I expected 3 quarters for it, not his first 2. 2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction are needed by the modern definition of a recession.
A nearly 50% drop in booked global TEUs?
TEU means Twenty Foot Equivalent Units, your basic standard shipping container.
Yes, yes, this is astoundingly, apocalyptically bad.
America will be more fucked than others, but this is Great Depression 2.0.
If this persists, and you end up with a the rest of the year of roughly half the TEU… well you’d go from about 900m TEU to about 550m TEU.
The last time global sea trade clocked in at about 550m TEU was 2010.
So… yeah, just wipe out the last 15 years worth of volume of world trade, and economic activity/growth enabled by that, and oh also you have about 1 billion more mouths to feed than in 2010.
Or… if you look at it in terms of % change… its hard to find detailed, historical, week by week figures without paying for the data, but the entirety of the GFC hitting the global economy in 2009 resulted in an 8.5% decrease in global TEU from 2008.
So… it remains to be seen how long and strong the current downturn in TEU will persist…
But, if you say 2025 TEU drops by 30% in aggregate for the rest of this year… that is a 2025 that has a -22.5% ‘growth’ in total world trade volume, almost 3x as bad as the 07 08 09 GFC, the impact of which was seen in the -8.5% of 2009.
These are spitball guess numbers, I can’t predict the future… but I do have a degree in Econ and I used to work as an executive level data analyst for a large mulinational, US based import export firm… so its moderately informed spitball guess.
This is Great Depression 2.0, this will make the GFC look like childs play. This is tens or hundreds of millions of people (globally) going broke, becoming homeless, starving to death levels of bad.
The only way to prevent that at this point is … well basically step one is America needs to impeach and imprison every Trump administration member… but that is uh… not guaranteed, to say the least.
Yeah, one problem here is that global container circulation needs to, well, circulate. People don’t ship empty containers, that’s stupid expensive. So container hire is going to get way more expensive as global shipping needs to rebalance. Happened under covid, too.
I work in international freight and my department focuses on the U.S. - Canadian border. We’ve been bracing for a decline but so far our volume has been steadily increasing.
I see the documents for every shipment crossing my assigned gateway and it looks like consumer goods are staying at the same volume, but B2B is increasing. So while Canadian consumers are boycotting American goods, industry is reliant on American parts to continue functioning.
I’m assuming the increased volume is a result of companies buying things that they know they will need in the future before the trade war intensifies and those same parts cost them even more.
Note, that data is from April 8th, which is before the 90 day tariff pause was announced.
From what my friends working in retail have told me, the trend is (temporarily) reversed. Every freight container going to the US is getting booked solid at inflated rates as brands try to bring in merchandise from non-Chinese factories into the US in case the tariffs resume.
Link to the image is still up, so we have to remove this as an image post.
If you replace the image with the link to the article, we can restore it.
Wait is Trump actually doing something good for the environment even if by mistake??!?
Is Trump working on Making America Great Again, by turning it into a European colony again? A massive trade war with China, is obviously going to hurt both countries and Europe is the largest economy left.
Honestly he idolizes Russia, so … Their economy is barely an international one right now. Also one of the worst internationally for a “major” country.
The main reason he is doing this is only because his Hero did it.
And trump really likes doing ANYTHING Hitler did.
As of Aprill 8.
oh no the economy is collapsing. But at least we have racism!
I guess MAGA people will see this as a win? Since imports are down 2x much as imports. If the value of the goods in these containers are roughly equal, that should mean smaller trade deficits?
