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6·13 hours agoNot to mention, NBC ran the numbers with different turnout cases. In one of those cases, a very realistic but small few percentage point changes in turnout assumptions of different demographics could make the poll swing to 49% Harris to 46% Trump
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
Further, two other national polls released today showed the race as Harris+3. A lot of the dooming tends to be based on single polls. Yes the polls suggest race is close, but only paying attention to anything bad/mediocre isn’t helpful either
Don’t doom, take action instead
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Note that you are repeating the same polls multiple times in that listing. 538 lists the same poll multiple times based on the different results from it (likely voters vs register voters) and head to head vs full field often giving 2 to 4 results per poll. These are not separate polls. The NYT only did one poll of PA recently, don’t assume those are 4 at the same time
As an aside, some of the pollsters have gotten more partisan this cycle. That recent TIPP poll there was the most egregious where a previously reputable pollster just decided to just assume that philadelphia was going to have 1/10 of the normal turnout in their likely voter screening (look at the unusually massive difference in their likely voters vs registered voters). This is despite asking how likely they were to vote and people in philadelphia respondeded with normal numbers, not anything anywhere close to 1/10th. It wasn’t a mistake either, they replied saying they were the ones who did the likely voting screen and there were no errors, but didn’t really offer much of an explication of why they basically assumed philadelphia wouldn’t vote
For anyone anxious about the election, we can move the needle. Beyond just voting, volunteering is a great way to easy anxiety a bit and to help have an impact
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Highly encourage turning that election anxiety into action
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
On the flip side, Trump was overestimated in the Republican primaries this year. Pollsters have dramatically altered their polling this year in ways that are going to be more favorable to trump this year.
For instance, about 2/3rd of polls are now using recall polling which has historically not been used by pollsters because it tend to overstate the losing party of the election and underestimate the winners. Even non-recall polls have made changes like much more heavily sampling rural voters. Not to mention that the numbers of polls from partisian republican pollsters has been increasing which skews polling averages
Could he still be underestimated with all those changes, maybe, but at the same time I wouldn’t assume that’s anything given
441·2 days agoFox news would never be so concerned about such “details” like “hey that’s obviously not a fox, what are you on about” /s
(I uploaded the wrong photo)
Fox news yet again lying through omission and blatantly forgetting the important news of foxes eating watermelons
Also should mention thay they also have many other districts and swing states on that site too
Can also find some other volunteer opportunities for in person and online stuff on https://mobilize.us
5·2 days agoThere are some instances that still run. Not exactly sure how, to be honest. The main two I know about that still work are
xcancel.com (what I linked in the body) and nitter.poast.org
If you have any interest in helping make that possible, you can help some letters to increase Alaska turnount (focused on defending the Alaska house seat for dems, so still important even if it doesn’t flip for president)
For those anxious about that possibility, we can help move the needle
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
I linked it in the post body with a twitter mirror
The yes on Measure J campaign is more cash strapped compared to the mostly meat industry funded opposition. They are more of a grassroots campaign. If you have the means, they can use donations or volunteers to help out
And the “…” wasn’t even me editing the headline, that was in the original headline
It didn’t say “have to” as in you are legally obligated to. It says why “it’s best to” and explains why 3rd parties act as spoilers in the first past the post system and how voting for a 3rd party can lead to the exact opposite person winning than who you want
Well some of the criticism is from Republicans too
Not OP, but while it’s obviously not a swing for president, it’s worth reminding that down ballot races matter everywhere. New York is a good part of the reason why republicans got a narrow majority in the house in 2022 and can be a part of how we flip it back
Ironically, if you do that with Alaska, you’d think it’s already blue. Here’s alaska in 2016
I’ve seen others online suggest that this was an intentional leak for fundraising, but I’m dubious of that for a couple of reasons
The leads for dems in some of these races (though certainly not all) are larger than what you’d hope to leak to show it’s still competitive to drive donations. For instance, they show Hogan in Maryland down by 7 points and trending in the opposite direction. If they were intentionally leaking, they probably wouldn’t have mention these races or leaked an outlier poll showing it closer
Why would they leak mediocre trump president numbers in this too? Trump wants to claim that he’s winning and that everything is rigged against him, but leaking something showing the opposite would undercut him and draw his ire