The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation – Economics from the Top Down
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Do unskilled people actually underestimate their incompetence?

Have you heard of the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’? It’s the (apparent) tendency for unskilled people to overestimate their competence. Discovered in 1999 by psychologists Justin Kruger and David Dunning, the effect has since become famous.

Except there’s a problem.

The Dunning-Kruger effect also emerges from data in which it shouldn’t. For instance, if you carefully craft random data so that it does not contain a Dunning-Kruger effect, you will still find the effect. The reason turns out to be embarrassingly simple: the Dunning-Kruger effect has nothing to do with human psychology.1 It is a statistical artifact — a stunning example of autocorrelation.

EDIT: see response from dustyData and the article they linked to https://www.bps.org.uk/psychologist/dunning-kruger-effect-and-its-discontents

  • @[email protected]English
    -10•3 months ago

    People who think they understand Dunning-Kruger, and use it as an insult, are a perfect example of Dunning-Kruger, which does not exist.

    • @[email protected]English
      7•3 months ago

      Clearly. People who use opinion in place of facts and training never happens. At least not on the internet. It probably happens in real life but it’s super rare cause it doesn’t have a name for it.