It’s not. People aren’t just coming into the bet as neutral computational machines trying to maximize odds. They’re betting on people they like. Some are spending money to intentionally warp the odds. The only population control is people with money willing to risk it in a process with <1.0 expected return. That’s a subpopulation already known for making bad choices.
I would suggest that it might be a significantly more accurate source than standard polling.
It’s not. People aren’t just coming into the bet as neutral computational machines trying to maximize odds. They’re betting on people they like. Some are spending money to intentionally warp the odds. The only population control is people with money willing to risk it in a process with <1.0 expected return. That’s a subpopulation already known for making bad choices.
Here’s a previous “betting odds” headline: Andrew Yang has the same 2020 odds as Elizabeth Warren