return2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 10 个月前Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averagesabcnews.go.comexternal-linkmessage-square19linkfedilinkarrow-up137arrow-down17cross-posted to: [email protected]
arrow-up130arrow-down1external-linkHarris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averagesabcnews.go.comreturn2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 10 个月前message-square19linkfedilinkcross-posted to: [email protected]
minus-squareatzanteollinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up11arrow-down3·10 个月前 538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016. No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”
minus-squareBen Hur Horse Race@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up4·10 个月前I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
minus-squarePowerCrazy@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up6arrow-down1·10 个月前It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
minus-squareatzanteollinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up4arrow-down1·10 个月前It wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.
minus-squareDogPeePoo@lemm.eeBanned from communitylinkfedilinkarrow-up4arrow-down2·edit-29 个月前Sure, Jan You know how the internet works, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩 GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
minus-squareatzanteollinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up6arrow-down1·10 个月前You know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…
minus-squarePheonixdown@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up3·10 个月前Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.
No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”
I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.
Sure, Jan
You know how the internet works, right?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
You know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…
Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.
Hah! Excellent example. 😆