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Théo’s huge wagers on Polymarket—a prediction market that isn’t open to Americans—drew broad attention last month after the Journal reported that four accounts on the platform had been systematically purchasing wagers on a Trump victory. The bets lifted Trump’s odds of beating Vice President Kamala Harris, as shown on Polymarket. Blockchain data showed that the accounts were all funded by the same crypto exchange, fueling debate about the motives of the “Trump whale” behind them.
So the entire prediction market swing is simply about a rich guy tossing huge amounts of money around, and has nothing whatsoever to do with what’s actually going on.
Yesteeday the Republican president, Democrat popular vote is +245. Trump was -200 and Kamala was +170.
It doesn’t even make sense. In what world is Trump winning the popular vote? If you believe Trump will win, take that bet all day. In fact I think the odds are so good you could arbitrage between kamala and the first bet and always come out ahead.