Almost $1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt comes due for repayment before the end of 2025. (Source - Bloomberg). A third of the long-term office leases expire by 2026. It will be interesting to what happens in terms of lower rents, or maybe conversion of offices to other types of property use in towns and cities.

A darker thought is, will this debt precipitate a commercial debt crisis?

Trillion dollar debt crises can sink broader economies, and have a much bigger impact on the workforce than any RTO mandate.

Peak Command and Control

The second big factor in the return-to-office mandate is continuation of Command and Control management techniques developed for the economy of the 20th Century.

This attitude can be illustrated with a view that “Productivity can only be maintained where I can see you working”. As opposed to a more empowering message, “these are the outcomes I expect from your work.” 

This command and control mindset will still work for some highly-paid knowledge workers, and where people have few other decent employment choices.  However, when there is competition for these highly paid knowledge workers, these tactics will fall apart.

Workers prefer to feel empowered than to be spied on.

There is already data that shows RTO mandates increase the flight-risk (attrition) for high-performers, women, and, millennials. (Source - Gartner).

The rhetoric of RTO mandates can also provide linguistic cover for redundancies and lay-offs.