If I’m a landlord and a bunch of tenants get booted from the country, not move, I’m not lowering prices. Prices are getting raised to cover the loss in revenue.
If people were moving, it would mean someone else had better prices or apartments and I was charging too much. Because they just vanished, it means that my relative position in the market remains unchanged, and I’m just getting less revenue.
And I mean, c’mon. Have you ever heard of a landlord lowering rent?
Yeah, but those empty units are still costing you money, especially if you still have a mortgage on them. You want to fill them before other landlords with the same problem snatch up your potential tenants. And there’s fewer tenants to go around. If someone else drops rent and snatches up all your potential tenants you’re just stuck paying off your own mortgage until you find someone.
And it’s not like you became a landlord to pay off your own mortgage.
Imagine a 100 unit building. Most management companies stagger the leases to minimize time empty and maintenance hours (empty units need to be made ready for new tenants if 10 units become vacant in the same week, it will likely mean more time unoccupied).
Now, in Miami-Dade, the most populous and the least diverse country in Florida, 80 units suddenly become unoccupied and unpaid for. This would be financially devastating for the company. They will do what it takes to get tenants in leases and yes prices will drop.
Many of the apartments in the area are all under a handful of corporate companies. Conservatively they could lose 40% occupancy in a few months. Compound this in that there would also be a similar loss in the number of potential occupants. They would also likely lose most of their maintenance staff.
South Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade) has a very large migrant population. Among this population you have Haitians, Cubans, and Venezuelans who have protected statuses that will likely end. These statuses also mean that the government will know exactly where to go to start the process of removal.
You’re making the assumption of one person per apartment and one deportation = 1 vacant apartment which is highly unlikely. Probably a whole family in the apt. so it may not even be vacated at all if one member is deported. Even if the whole family is deported that’s only like 1 vacant apartment per at least 4-5 or more deportations. So yes, more housing will become available but not as much as you are estimating. IMO the effects will be felt much more in the labor shortage than in housing surplus.
Imagine that same story, but it’s 7 units suddenly becoming unoccupied and you have a more plausible scenario.
Housing doesn’t work precisely the same as other goods. People don’t break their lease to jump to an apartment with lower rent.
If you have vacancy because people aren’t choosing you, you need to make changes to increase appeal.
If you had otherwise full occupancy and now you and all your competitors have 7% vacancy, you don’t need to make yourself stand out
Yep with the exodus, you’ll have a glut of apartments without tenants. You don’t raise your prices in that situation, you lower them because a lower amount of rent is better than nothing. I’m friends with an apartment manager; yes we talk shop, this is what actually happens.
When was the last time your friend dealt with the government arbitrarily removing 5%-10% of the rental population from the market as a whole?
Normally if you have a lot of vacancies, it’s because other places are more attractive. In this situation it’s because of an arbitrary market distortion.
A better example is looking at university towns where the student population is comparable to permanent residents. In those situations you often see rental companies raise costs during the summer. When the students are on their way back for the next year, prices come down to increase appeal.
If I’m a landlord and a bunch of tenants get booted from the country, not move, I’m not lowering prices. Prices are getting raised to cover the loss in revenue.
If people were moving, it would mean someone else had better prices or apartments and I was charging too much. Because they just vanished, it means that my relative position in the market remains unchanged, and I’m just getting less revenue.
And I mean, c’mon. Have you ever heard of a landlord lowering rent?
Yeah, but those empty units are still costing you money, especially if you still have a mortgage on them. You want to fill them before other landlords with the same problem snatch up your potential tenants. And there’s fewer tenants to go around. If someone else drops rent and snatches up all your potential tenants you’re just stuck paying off your own mortgage until you find someone.
And it’s not like you became a landlord to pay off your own mortgage.
Imagine a 100 unit building. Most management companies stagger the leases to minimize time empty and maintenance hours (empty units need to be made ready for new tenants if 10 units become vacant in the same week, it will likely mean more time unoccupied).
Now, in Miami-Dade, the most populous and the least diverse country in Florida, 80 units suddenly become unoccupied and unpaid for. This would be financially devastating for the company. They will do what it takes to get tenants in leases and yes prices will drop.
Many of the apartments in the area are all under a handful of corporate companies. Conservatively they could lose 40% occupancy in a few months. Compound this in that there would also be a similar loss in the number of potential occupants. They would also likely lose most of their maintenance staff.
South Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade) has a very large migrant population. Among this population you have Haitians, Cubans, and Venezuelans who have protected statuses that will likely end. These statuses also mean that the government will know exactly where to go to start the process of removal.
You’re making the assumption of one person per apartment and one deportation = 1 vacant apartment which is highly unlikely. Probably a whole family in the apt. so it may not even be vacated at all if one member is deported. Even if the whole family is deported that’s only like 1 vacant apartment per at least 4-5 or more deportations. So yes, more housing will become available but not as much as you are estimating. IMO the effects will be felt much more in the labor shortage than in housing surplus.
Imagine that same story, but it’s 7 units suddenly becoming unoccupied and you have a more plausible scenario.
Housing doesn’t work precisely the same as other goods. People don’t break their lease to jump to an apartment with lower rent.
If you have vacancy because people aren’t choosing you, you need to make changes to increase appeal.
If you had otherwise full occupancy and now you and all your competitors have 7% vacancy, you don’t need to make yourself stand out
Yeah, that’s not how that works at all.
Yep with the exodus, you’ll have a glut of apartments without tenants. You don’t raise your prices in that situation, you lower them because a lower amount of rent is better than nothing. I’m friends with an apartment manager; yes we talk shop, this is what actually happens.
When was the last time your friend dealt with the government arbitrarily removing 5%-10% of the rental population from the market as a whole?
Normally if you have a lot of vacancies, it’s because other places are more attractive. In this situation it’s because of an arbitrary market distortion.
A better example is looking at university towns where the student population is comparable to permanent residents. In those situations you often see rental companies raise costs during the summer. When the students are on their way back for the next year, prices come down to increase appeal.
And the people they are deporting play a significant role in housing maintenance, repair, and construction.