Unless those markets are checked by U.S. regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has oversight on prediction markets like Kalshi and PredictIt. On December 13, all wagers related to Magione vanished from the sites. According to Bloomberg, Kalshi removed the Mangione-related wagers from its sites after it received a “notice from…regulators.” The outlet writes that the CFTC “bans futures trading linked to crimes including assassination, terrorism, and war if the agency decides the so-called events contracts are against the public interest.”
On Polymarket all assassin-related bets are on. “Will Luigi Mangione fire his lawyer before 2025?” Polymarket has the odds at just 1 percent. “Will it be confirmed that Luigi Mangione used psychedelics?” The users give it a 43 percent chance. “Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?” On December 10, Polymarket had this at a 75 percent chance, but it plummeted to around 25 percent.
I could see where it might set a bad precedent. But the week I spent in Vegas, there was a constant sign running an ad that you could bet on the Presidency, and I can’t think of a single good argument about how betting on a trial is more dangerous than betting on the office that can undo any federal crime with a pen stroke.