NASA increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, but they're now back down to 1 in 67, or 1.5%.

NASA increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, but they’re now back down to 1 in 67, or 1.5%.

  • threelonmusketeersEnglish
    5·
    2 months ago

    It’s a shame you’re being downvoted for genuine questions.

    I thought we knew most of the stuff in our solar system to pinpoint accuracy already.

    We know where all the big rocks are. Those smaller than a few hundred meters are much harder to spot.

    A telescope in mars orbit vs a telescope in solar orbit vs a telescope in earth orbit could get you position and velocity very accurately id think.

    It definitely could, but we don’t really have astrometry telescopes beyond earth orbit. I can’t wait until launch costs get low enough for us to yeet Hubble-class or Arecibo-class telescopes all over the solar system, and maybe even do interferometry between them.

      • threelonmusketeersEnglish
        1·
        2 months ago

        Oh is this not “big”?

        Not compared to the dinosaur killer. Chicxulub was around 10 kilometers wide, while 2024 YR4 is estimated to be ~100 meters wide. A hundred-fold increase in linear size roughly corresponds to million-fold increases in volume, mass, and energy. 2024 YR4 could wipe out a city, but nothing close to the effects of Chicxulub.

        Do we at least have the dinosaur killers mapped out 🤞

        Yeah, I think we’ve catalogued those pretty extensively, and pinned down their orbits well enough to conclude that none of them pose a significant threat in the next century or so.