Back during the first months of the Trump presidency, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich made a prescient—if not entirely original—observation about his one-time rival for the Republican nomination: “You don’t put an animal in the corner without the animal striking back, [and] you don’t put a politician in the corner … without them expecting to strike back at you.”
Kasich was correct in his assessment of Trump’s approach to leading Washington, and it’s a strategy that’s re-emerged as the ex-President faces increasingly urgent risks coming at him from all directions. Luck, it turns out, is a finite commodity. And a ginned-up gerbil can do more damage than a complacent cheetah.
Trump is under indictment in three separate criminal cases and is out on bond. A fourth criminal case out of Georgia could come as soon as this week, and preparations underway in Fulton County sure look like prosecutors in Atlanta are bracing for a chaotic scene. The trials would derail Trump for weeks if not months at the exact time he would need to be pandering to voters. And, despite being atop the polls of Republicans looking to be the presidential nominee in 2024, the risks to both his frontrunner status and his freedom are real enough that it’s sending him spiraling in search of a distraction.
“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” That’s what Trump posted on his Truth Social account over the weekend, prompting Justice Department lawyers to ask a judge in the case involving election interference to issue a protective order. The not-at-all-subtle warning was part of a litany of all-caps threats that brought to mind various unhinged stretches of posts when he used to frequent the platform previously known as Twitter. When Trump wasn’t complaining that he was a victim of a politically motivated prosecution (“WHAT THE DEPARTMENT OF INJUSTICE IS DOING TO ME IS THE SAME THING DONE BY THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD.”), he was going after the U.S. team for its loss in the Women’s World Cup, singling out star player (and Trump critic) Megan Rapinoe for an errant foot: “WOKE EQUALS FAILURE. Nice shot Megan, the USA is going to Hell!!! MAGA.”
Sure, Trump’s social-media footprint has never been a particularly sophisticated logic-based realm. But for the first time since he joined the presidential fray back in 2015, Trump sounds genuinely scared, like he finally seems to be realizing his luck may be unique but not limitless. His knack for defying political gravity has been evidenced since his first campaign, when any other nominee would have been felled by the same series of missteps, scandals, and self-immolation; Trump instead somehow rode the fire-engulfed dumpster all the way to the North Lawn of the White House.
Trump has long enjoyed lashing out at those he perceives as insufficiently loyal. No one has been immune, be they real challengers like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or just perceived threats, as were the cases of Pope Francis, George W. Bush, and Megyn Kelly. But these latest attacks, somehow, feel different in a changed environment that no longer guarantees fearful fealty from his rivals. Where he previously launched his rockets with abandon, he is now being more direct to respond to would-be usurpers.
To Trump’s credit, his reflex appears to be more tactical than in the past.
Take, for instance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the closest thing that Trump has to a rival for the nomination next year. While Trump enjoys a massive lead over the Anti-Woke Warrior from the Sunshine State, DeSantis has been working on retooling a failure-to-launch bid, and it seems like he’s rethinking his deference to Trump. In an interview that aired on NBC News this week, DeSantis for the first time finally stopped pussyfooting around whether Trump won in 2020. “No, of course he lost,” DeSantis said. “Joe Biden’s the President.” After more than 1,000 days of playing coy games and dodging any declaration about Biden’s legitimacy, DeSantis has finally concluded it is time to treat Trump like the man to dethrone.
DeSantis, who on Tuesday replaced his top political hand, had been walking the line. For months, the default has felt like a backhanded defense of Trump at every turn, living both in contempt and cower of the ex-President. But two weeks ago, during a swing through Iowa, DeSantis subtly jabbed his one-time self-considered patron. “I don’t consider myself to be an entertainer,” DeSantis said in Osceola. “I’m a leader. And that’s what you get for me, somebody that will deliver results.” The ceiling of the distillery where he spoke didn’t collapse, and DeSantis marched on. (Trump, naturally, told a conservative radio host that DeSantis should drop out for the good of the party.)
DeSantis’ footing—and Trump’s counter-punch—has seemed to grow stronger in recent days. Until recently, only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been an unabashed critic of Trump’s return to power, a lonely spot but one that is starting to have some pals testing its viability. After all, 78 looming felony charges gives even the most mild of candidates permission to at least raise the question of Trump’s true viability in a rematch against Joe Biden. “This election needs to be about Jan. 20, 2025, not Jan. 6, 2021,” DeSantis said in Waverly, Iowa, during that weekend bus tour.
Similarly, former Vice President Mike Pence—the one who spent four years as Trump’s loyal and self-censoring understudy—has started to rev up his critique of the ex-boss, and thus draw his ire. While Pence has hinted at his antipathy toward Trump and, in particular, his former boss’ conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, the intensity has increased of late. And not coincidentally, Trump has targeted more of his public attacks on Pence, as he realizes that his former vice president poses a real threat to his legal woes, given his first-hand access to the West Wing during the final weeks of Trump’s tour there.
Pence predicted Trump’s realization was coming, telling The New York Times on July 30: “I think we’re coming to a fork in the road.”
I hate to rain on this parade, but there’s no guarantee Biden will pull it off in a rematch with Trump. It was way too damn close in 2020, and the MAGA base is as fired up as ever these days. The “sane middle,” if it still exists, needs to turn out hard, because if Trump wins this thing, I for one our democracy is freakin’ toast.
Make sure to actually vote.
Too many people are too busy complaining about political threats and then forget to go vote on election day. The turnout rate in the US is incredibly low compared to other mature democracies. Vote! Local, state, national. Every time.
There was a recent article that mentioned that it might not be so close anymore due to the results of anti-vaccine politics and the effects it had on the death rate.
Due to electorial college and gerrymandering. Looking at the number of votes it wasn’t close at all. There have been loads of articles regarding the illegal gerrymandering where in various cases the illegal ones were still kept as any change was blocked.
It’s a close election because it’s manipulated.
I was under the impression that gerrymandering has no influence on the presidential election. The electoral votes are decided by the state-wide majority, not through counties.
But I’m not from the US, so could be wrong.
Taje “gerrymandering” as “gerrymandering, the electoral college, selectively shutting down polls in areas the opposition is likely to do well in and other forms of chicanery intended to deny a free and fair election”.
That and the general passage of time means there’s fewer old people around that voted in 2020 and there’s a bunch of people that were too young to vote in 2020 that will be eligible to vote in 2024. It seems to zoomers are more politically engaged than expected (taking away rights will do that).
Besides that, Biden got more votes than Trump before Jan. 6, before Roe was overturned, before Trump was indicted multiple times. Is there going to be a lot of people that voted for Biden in 2020 that will change their vote to the guy that tried to throw out their vote last time around?
Definitely not guaranteed biden wins, but you have to admit trump is toxic. He directly helped lead to the republicans underperforming in the 2022 midterms, and his mere existence on a ballot energizes people to get out and vote against him. It’s not looking good for the guy, and anything’s possible, but I really don’t think he will win.
This even assumes Trump gets in the race. There’s a lot of contenders right now, and some of them like DeSantis have a decent head of steam behind them. Sure, Ron doesn’t have Donald’s charisma and ability to work a crowd, but he’s a lot more baldfaced as a fascist, and that might be what he needs if the GOP keeps playing the Culture War angle.
Desantis just admitted that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. His campaign is over. Check his polling, it’s been nosediving hard.
But he waffled on how he said it. He said that the president is the one who was inaugurated, but that the was something amiss with the 2016 election. He’s trying to appeal to both sides.
Nobody thought he would win in 2016 and if not for the anti democratic electoral collage he would not have.
even then there was a lot of stupid people who believed his bs that he spewed in every direction. He implied he would legalize weed on a federal level and something else that is usually very liberal. Then you had the democrats sink bernie and that did not help. All the same folks better vote like their lives depend on it if trump is a canidate.
Is there a sane middle?
Like does sanity exist on an entirely separate axis from stupidity and from ignorance, or can you be sane and stupid? I’m not sure, but I think sanity may be less relevant than competence.
I doubt you can be a competent voter in the middle. There isn’t really a compromise there, on any issue except maybe corporate welfare. Maybe you can be a reasoned centrist if you manage a hedge fund or something. Even then you are probably supposed to be sociopathically voting for tax breaks.
I have zero faith in the middle, and consider them all cryptofascists until proven stupid. Maybe that’s why both parties try so hard to court the centrist “swing” vote: they know centrists are enriched with gullible idiots.
I feel you about the sane middle. I am a Democrat and likely will vote for Biden regardless, but even the prospect of having a republican nominee like Trump, Pence, or DeSantis terrifies me. I really hope unenrolled, independents and moderate Republicans vote for almost anyone else in the primary. I think the mayor of Miami and someone from North Dakota (a senator?) are running. Don’t know a ton about them but they seem less mean-spirited as far as I know. I just have this horrible imaginary scene in my head where the Republican National Convention has a remote telecast set up from Donald Trump’s cell block. Or maybe there’s an announcement that says “Our candidate must leave the convention early because he has a curfew with his house arrest.” Or even Trump just excusing himself several times throughout the convention to return correspondence from his lawyers, the courts, or publicists. It would be so embarrassing for the party and to the country to allow a convict or near-convict to compete so closely for the highest office in the land.
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Biden has been pretty good and it’s nice to have a normal president but I do look forward to a time in the future that the democrats push a candidate that gets folk excited. I am happy to vote Biden again and will but maybe we can get someone younger after that?