Speculation has been a relatively insignificant factor overall in the trade of stocks compared to the effects of their intrinsic value.
Stocks carry and accrue value due to the work of others than those who hold them.
The following was your response:
That simply is not true. The value of publicly traded stocks is based upon the speculation that the value of the stock will rise or decline which is often not related to the productivity of the workers.
The notion that all value cones from labor is fundamentally incorrect.
It only confuses the matter further that you now offer as clarification, “I have never said the entire value is speculative”.
I believe the observations I have given, more so than yours, are generally accurate.
The price of stocks is supported principally by the value generated by labor, with speculation necessarily only a secondary effect.
The belief that value will rise is generally an accurate belief, because growth occurs from the value generate by labor. Such growth is not related to speculation.
If I suspect APPL is going to gain value because… Chinese government workers can use Apple devices, then the gain in value will be based on the speculation… not related to anything the workers are currently doing…
The new sales would be of products whose creation occurs only through the labor of workers. Your are describing ordinary investment, not speculation.
Stocks kind of sort of sometimes represent real valuations but they never reflect the pure value of the labor alone.
The particular distinction is not relevant. Stocks gain value because of the labor of workers.
The labor of workers is the source of value, the single element without which stocks would never gain value. Speculation only occurs as secondary effect, a response to the intrinsic value generated by labor. If work stopped, if intrinsic value stopped growing, then speculation would also cease to have meaning.
An asset class inevitably crashes if traded speculatively but lacking any intrinsic value, as observed in Ponzi schemes.
The value increased because people suspect sales would be made of products so the value increased with ZERO input from the workers.
No prediction is absolute, and neither is any investment.
However, suppose inputs may be purchased at market for prices that are broadly stable, suppose a process is available for workers to create the products from such inputs, suppose the process is not in conflict with natural and legal constraints on the labor market, suppose the total wages required to pay to workers for each product is known, to reasonable precision, and suppose a consumer demand is also known, to reasonable precision.
Then, the prediction for profitability of investment is one related to general investment, not one based on speculation.
More, the prediction may be accurate only because the labor market exists, because workers will be available to provide labor.
If workers were not available, then no one would invest in production, obviously.
Sorry but it is entirely relevant as it demonstrates the inaccuracy if your claim that labor is the only source of value.\
You have consistently misconstrued my claim.
I never asserted the value of an asset may never have a component that is speculative, only that an asset class cannot sustain a component of its value that is speculative unless it also has a component relating to intrinsic value.
Except in extreme cases, as noted, the reason assets have speculative value is because they also have intrinsic value.
Again, assets eventually crash if they have no intrinsic value, only speculative value. Such is the claim I have made, which you consistently misrepresent.
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A particular stock cannot be meaningfully considered overvalued if its entire value is speculative.
Such is the contradiction.
Perhaps you are not understanding speculation, confusing it with any investment purchase, any purchase based on expectation of rising value.
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I observed as follows:
The following was your response:
It only confuses the matter further that you now offer as clarification, “I have never said the entire value is speculative”.
I believe the observations I have given, more so than yours, are generally accurate.
The price of stocks is supported principally by the value generated by labor, with speculation necessarily only a secondary effect.
The belief that value will rise is generally an accurate belief, because growth occurs from the value generate by labor. Such growth is not related to speculation.
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The new sales would be of products whose creation occurs only through the labor of workers. Your are describing ordinary investment, not speculation.
The particular distinction is not relevant. Stocks gain value because of the labor of workers.
The labor of workers is the source of value, the single element without which stocks would never gain value. Speculation only occurs as secondary effect, a response to the intrinsic value generated by labor. If work stopped, if intrinsic value stopped growing, then speculation would also cease to have meaning.
An asset class inevitably crashes if traded speculatively but lacking any intrinsic value, as observed in Ponzi schemes.
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No prediction is absolute, and neither is any investment.
However, suppose inputs may be purchased at market for prices that are broadly stable, suppose a process is available for workers to create the products from such inputs, suppose the process is not in conflict with natural and legal constraints on the labor market, suppose the total wages required to pay to workers for each product is known, to reasonable precision, and suppose a consumer demand is also known, to reasonable precision.
Then, the prediction for profitability of investment is one related to general investment, not one based on speculation.
More, the prediction may be accurate only because the labor market exists, because workers will be available to provide labor.
If workers were not available, then no one would invest in production, obviously.
You have consistently misconstrued my claim.
I never asserted the value of an asset may never have a component that is speculative, only that an asset class cannot sustain a component of its value that is speculative unless it also has a component relating to intrinsic value.
Except in extreme cases, as noted, the reason assets have speculative value is because they also have intrinsic value.
Again, assets eventually crash if they have no intrinsic value, only speculative value. Such is the claim I have made, which you consistently misrepresent.