• Bernie Ecclestoned
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    1 year ago

    Lol, the guardian have to crowbar brexit into everything, even making the image brexit related

    They never make any comparison, as if the UK is the only country with any issues

    If you look at PMI manufacturing survey data, the UK is doing better than the EU, France and Germany, and they also don’t mention the good news on services…

    But that probably doesn’t get any clicks

    https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/manufacturing-pmi?continent=europe

    Funny how the report they are reporting on doesn’t mention brexit once… inflation being the number one concern, closely followed by interest rates, which affect investment obviously, but the guardian doesn’t mention that

    Inflationary pressures continue to ease but remain the top concern.

    The percentage of firms expecting their prices to rise fell for the fifth consecutive quarter. Two-fifths of firms (41%) now expect to put up prices in the next three months. This is down from an historic high of 65% in Q2 of 2022, indicating inflationary pressures are continuing to ease.

    While inflation remains firms’ biggest concern, the level has dropped for the third quarter running, with 65% of firms now worried compared to 69% in Q2. However there has been a corresponding 4 percentage point rise in businesses worried about interest rates, increasing from 41% in Q2 to 45% in Q3.

    https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2023/10/bcc-quarterly-economic-survey-investment-flatlining-as-interest-rate-fears-climb/

    • Syldon@feddit.uk
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      1 year ago

      You cannot use PMI to make comparisons between countries. PMI is a comparison to yourself and how your economy is doing. Anything below 50 on PMI shows that there is a contraction in the economy. The UK’s PMI is 44, so it proves the point that the economy is shrinking.

      As for using Germany and France for comparisons that is just bloody stupid. Brexit did not just affect the UK, it was damaging to countries in the EU also.

      • Bernie Ecclestoned
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        1 year ago

        Of course you can compare PMI results, it’s a survey of purchasing managers, why do they publish them then?

        How did brexit affect France and Germany? There are no import controls from the EU to the UK

        • Syldon@feddit.uk
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          1 year ago

          why do they publish them then?

          To show how you are doing compared to the previous month. It does not show you how you are doing in comparison to everyone else; it is a comparison to your own market.

          How did brexit affect France and Germany? There are no import controls from the EU to the UK

          OFC there is, have you seen the massive lorry park at Dover? They also have extra costs with paperwork. This is as well as the economy being shrunk by the loss in UK trade.

          • Bernie Ecclestoned
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            1 year ago

            No it is not. You are talking nonsense. It’s used for both, it’s an easy way to compare differences in confidence across regions

            Why are they all published by country then? For fun?

            https://www.google.com/search?q=pmi index by country

            I suppose Bloomberg just do this for no reason as well then?

            https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/global-pmi-tracker/

            Show me some stats about trade rather than some hysterical nonsense about a lorry park

            Suggesting that Germany and France have been affected by brexit is nonsense. Covid supply shock and the Russian invasion and resulting sanctions on Russian energy dwarfs any brexit disruption from 2021

            • jabjoe@feddit.uk
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              1 year ago

              PMI is a relative measurement. You can’t use it to do absolute comparisons.

              It’s the same nonsense as Sunak saying we can take the foot of the peddle of NetZero because we have improved a load. We are not doing better than the others, we just improved the most, because we started so badly.

              https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001qtb0

                • Syldon@feddit.uk
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                  1 year ago

                  PMI is a comparison to YOUR previous month.. When your data point is your own economy then that has no relation to anyone else’s. The EU is in contraction because of the massive upheaval that has taken place in recent years. The EU was massively weakened by Brexit, and compounded with a pandemic. This was further exacerbated by the energy supply disruption, which in turn affect mainland EU countries more than the UK.

                  You are using one short term internal data point to prove an argument for something that happened in 2020 across many countries. It shows nothing but your ignorance on the subject.

                  • Bernie Ecclestoned
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                    1 year ago

                    Are you really this dense? Plus 50 is expansionary, below contractionary. It’s a prediction of economic activity. Can you seriously not see a reason why this data would be factored into investment decisions?

                • jabjoe@feddit.uk
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                  1 year ago

                  When invoking experts (thought you Brexiteers had enough of experts), you should reference you sources. But that map doesn’t have Britain standing out from Europe. Brexit has damaged the EU and Britain. It hurt us worse, but has hurt them too.

                  • Bernie Ecclestoned
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                    1 year ago

                    Lexiter.

                    If everywhere is fucked, nowhere is fucked

                    Capiche?

                    It’s just the degree of fuckedness. UK is not performing badly compared to its peers, ergo brexit is not affecting the UK on a macro scale.

                    Edit. The source is the Bloomberg article I linked above