President Joe Biden goes into next year’s election with a vexing challenge: Just as the U.S. economy is getting stronger, people are still feeling horrible about it.
Pollsters and economists say there has never been as wide a gap between the underlying health of the economy and public perception. The divergence could be a decisive factor in whether the Democrat secures a second term next year. Republicans are seizing on the dissatisfaction to skewer Biden, while the White House is finding less success as it tries to highlight economic progress.
“Things are getting better and people think things are going to get worse — and that’s the most dangerous piece of this," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has worked with Biden. Lake said voters no longer want to just see inflation rates fall — rather, they want an outright decline in prices, something that last happened on a large scale during the Great Depression.
“Honestly, I’m kind of mystified by it,” she said.
Fighting emotional responses with statistics is a doomed strategy
No other way to talk about the economy, unfortunately, it’s pretty statistical. Though I did try to explain how they could get a sense of inflation (locally, at least) just for themselves. Inflation can be handy that way.
Sadly, elections are not based on rational thought. If people feel the economy isn’t doing well - for whatever personal reasons they have - they don’t vote for whoever’s in charge.
You’re not going to “well actually” your way out of malaise. People have to feel like things are getting better for them and the people they know. No amount of statistics will change that.
And that’s fine. But, that op specifically wanted to talk about the economy and propaganda, so I figured may as well talk about one of those. Economy is gonna get into statistics, and propaganda is a subjective mess we’d just end up disagreeing on. So I went with economy.
I can’t live how I wish things should be. I have to deal with hard realities, like how I can talk about something objective and measurable and maybe, possibly, get somewhere concrete.
And if people were rational I’m sure your statistical analysis of the economy would be effective. But people aren’t rational, and no amount of statistics is going to convince someone who can’t afford their rent and groceries.
Fair point. Hard realities, though. I can’t really control feelings in any way where I would still be able to feel okay about myself. I’d have to lie and manipulate to control feelings, and I don’t like that. All I can do is say what I think is true, and leave it up to them.
As long as you recognize that your statistical truth and other people’s lived truth can both be real at the same time. And when it comes to elections it’s the latter that’s going to have the most impact.
Truths belong in holy books. I see things in terms of evidence or feelings.