I agree with what you are saying about strategy, but my point would be that courting a center hadn’t worked in 20+ years, and that courting a base has been a consistently more effective strategy for winning the presidency since 1996. I think this is shown in the receipts, and 2000 was the sea change.
Courting the center is 1980s political wisdom that doesn’t materialize in victory in 2020+
I just don’t agree that this is how those people were elected.
Bullet one is the key element, and Bush definitively did this, not only through the primary, but all the way to November.
The Tea Party movement was a direct result of that strategy. Likewise with Bush’s second term, and both of Obamas.
Trump did the same, even more extremely.
Biden also did the same in the primaries, but I would agree on his post primary pivot, although it was still catering to a strong progressive base, and looky that, he got elected.
I agree on principal, but I disagree on your conclusion that Biden, Obama, or Bush II won by appealing to a center (in the general).
I think all three and every president since Bush II has won by driving a base, and that centrism is no longer the dominant paradigm (although I agree that it was in the post Reagan era).
The only thing resembling the Tea Party in Bush’s campaign was tax cuts (along with EITC expansion). That’s it. They weren’t particularly aggressive (esp compared to Trump’s), and he mostly did a stimulus package due to the tech crash.
The rest of his platform was pretty centrist, such as:
non-interventionism - lol, he really didn’t stick to that, but it was in his campaign
no child left behind - expansion of education and testing
end reliance on foreign oil - has been a pretty consistent thing across the aisle
Nothing he campaigned on or did as President was particularly extreme. Gore, on the other hand, was relatively extreme WRT environmentalism, and Bush aimed to get those who didn’t agree with Gore.
Biden
Biden was only catering to progressives because everyone else was, and he was by far the least progressive of the frontrunners. If he’s the only one that’s saying something different, it needs to be really compelling or he’ll just get slaughtered in the debates.
Once he got the nomination, he didn’t need to cater to progressives anymore, so he focused on the center.
On the flipside, look at Romney, he was pretty centrist in the debates and got the nomination, but got slaughtered in the general election when he flipped more conservative. McCain had a similar strategy in 2008.
I agree with what you are saying about strategy, but my point would be that courting a center hadn’t worked in 20+ years, and that courting a base has been a consistently more effective strategy for winning the presidency since 1996. I think this is shown in the receipts, and 2000 was the sea change.
Courting the center is 1980s political wisdom that doesn’t materialize in victory in 2020+
It seems to have worked pretty well for Biden, Obama, and Bush. The pattern seems to be:
That way you get the best of both worlds, you build a base during the primaries, then attract the middle in the general election.
I just don’t agree that this is how those people were elected.
Bullet one is the key element, and Bush definitively did this, not only through the primary, but all the way to November. The Tea Party movement was a direct result of that strategy. Likewise with Bush’s second term, and both of Obamas.
Trump did the same, even more extremely.
Biden also did the same in the primaries, but I would agree on his post primary pivot, although it was still catering to a strong progressive base, and looky that, he got elected.
I agree on principal, but I disagree on your conclusion that Biden, Obama, or Bush II won by appealing to a center (in the general).
I think all three and every president since Bush II has won by driving a base, and that centrism is no longer the dominant paradigm (although I agree that it was in the post Reagan era).
The only thing resembling the Tea Party in Bush’s campaign was tax cuts (along with EITC expansion). That’s it. They weren’t particularly aggressive (esp compared to Trump’s), and he mostly did a stimulus package due to the tech crash.
The rest of his platform was pretty centrist, such as:
Nothing he campaigned on or did as President was particularly extreme. Gore, on the other hand, was relatively extreme WRT environmentalism, and Bush aimed to get those who didn’t agree with Gore.
Biden was only catering to progressives because everyone else was, and he was by far the least progressive of the frontrunners. If he’s the only one that’s saying something different, it needs to be really compelling or he’ll just get slaughtered in the debates.
Once he got the nomination, he didn’t need to cater to progressives anymore, so he focused on the center.
On the flipside, look at Romney, he was pretty centrist in the debates and got the nomination, but got slaughtered in the general election when he flipped more conservative. McCain had a similar strategy in 2008.