I specifically called out the rise in NYC – which was essentially the sole responsibility of a small number of people and may have already been taken care of based on LEO action that has already happened.

If one arsonist burns down 2 city blocks, it would be very weird to frame the narrative as “nationwide arson is on the rise”. While it may be technically true, it’s not the real story. The story should be that we need to catch that guy because his behavior is wildly deviant from the norm instead of trying to pretend norms have changed when they haven’t.

Your first stat, I believe, comes directly from the NRF, who are currently in hot water for making the fuck up statistics to drum up this moral panic. https://www.forbes.com/sites/markfaithfull/2023/12/08/national-retail-federation-retracts-stats-amid-theft-war-of-words/?sh=34a924821596

They have proven they do not have any kind of proper standards for coming up with their numbers. The presumption should be they’re pulled from the depths of their assholes until they allow independent audit, which they don’t – when asked, they say the data is proprietary.

corporations aren’t known to waste money, so the expansion of internal security departments and shoplifting prevention strategies seems like pretty good evidence that the problem is real.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5ve49/we-cried-too-much-walgreens-cfo-admits-retail-theft-isnt-the-crisis-it-portrayed

Don’t underestimate a large, hierarchical bureaucracy’s ability to be ponderous and operate with bad assumptions. In the long view, they will get sorted out, but in the short term they can drive industries. My bet is 5-10 years from now this entire shoplifting panic will be something people laugh at the idea of. But in the meantime we’ll have created permanent expansions to the penal and carceral system that hurt us all.