Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO military committee, warns about the importance of preparing for war while seeking peace:
“Not everything is going to be honky-dory in the next 20 years. I’m not saying it is going wrong tomorrow. But we have to realize it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we have the plans. That’s why we are preparing for a conflict with Russia and the terror groups. If it comes to it, if they attack us, we’re not seeking any conflict. But if they attack us, we have to be ready.”
Strategic deterrence requires actual (conventional) military strength. Else the risk you run is that an enemy will use conventional forces and break the border small pieces at a time while banking on the fact you won’t think this is bad enough to warrant nuclear escalation.
This will be the risk for Russia as well in the east. There won’t be full out war, but the Crimea playbook can also be used against Russia.
