Modern medicine the way it is, I don’t think either will bucket scooter off to death. And Trump probably can run from jail. That said, I do wonder what the contingency plan would be if either of both died before the general election. Has that ever historically happened?
I mean having a primary where you have meaningful debates and multiple candidates would be the contingency plan.
Even if the general were like, a week after they both died in a freakish accident? I guess they can always post pone the general though. I’m not sure who would have to make the call or if there are rules in place for DNC or GOP
There is a significant non-zero probability that any given week of theirs, is there last week.
I mean how many years do we think either of these two has left?
2? 3? and it doesn’t have to be 🛴🪣 , just total mental or physical degradation.
So what they’ve got maybe 100, 200 weeks ahead of them max? Assuming a uniform probability distribution, that’s a charitable 0.25% per week (and I do not believe its a uniform distribution), 40 weeks till the election, call it a %0.25 for either of them individually to kick the bucket: I get 18.14% probability that either one of the two 🛴🪣 in the next 40 weeks. Like its not crazy, they are old af.
I’m sure a student of geriatrics could get us some more informed priors, but I bet thats in the ball park.
I mean having a primary where you have meaningful debates and multiple candidates would be the contingency plan.
Even if the general were like, a week after they both died in a freakish accident? I guess they can always post pone the general though. I’m not sure who would have to make the call or if there are rules in place for DNC or GOP
I mean, these fuckers are old.
Like way fucking old.
There is a significant non-zero probability that any given week of theirs, is there last week.
I mean how many years do we think either of these two has left?
2? 3? and it doesn’t have to be 🛴🪣 , just total mental or physical degradation.
So what they’ve got maybe 100, 200 weeks ahead of them max? Assuming a uniform probability distribution, that’s a charitable 0.25% per week (and I do not believe its a uniform distribution), 40 weeks till the election, call it a %0.25 for either of them individually to kick the bucket: I get 18.14% probability that either one of the two 🛴🪣 in the next 40 weeks. Like its not crazy, they are old af.
I’m sure a student of geriatrics could get us some more informed priors, but I bet thats in the ball park.