It’s so hard to predict, I can’t tell. The reason I think it will be smoother than many people think, is how quickly the world reacted to Covid in March 2020.

I also suspect the first crisis that will force action won’t directly be unemployment itself, but some financial crisis stemming from it. If entire categories of jobs become permanently unemployable such as TV or movie production with Sora, or driving jobs with self-driving cars, then all of a sudden all the unpayable mortgages these people have are a crisis for the banks holding them. This was what precipitated the 2008 financial crisis