jeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 10 months agoShould we care about RFK Jr. and his new running mate?www.vox.comexternal-linkmessage-square11fedilinkarrow-up19arrow-down121
arrow-up1-12arrow-down1external-linkShould we care about RFK Jr. and his new running mate?www.vox.comjeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 10 months agomessage-square11fedilink
minus-squarejordanlund@lemmy.worldMlinkfedilinkarrow-up4·edit-210 months agoYES! Because swing state polling shows Biden either tied or slightly losing to Trump when it’s just them, head to head. But the same polling shows Biden losing by a wider margin if you include Kennedy, West, and Stein. 3rd party votes will only help Trump. Example: Michigan: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ Biden/Trump - 50/50 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 41/43/5/1/1 Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ Biden/Trump - 46/46 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 38/40/16/4 Wisconsin: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ Biden/Trump - 48/52 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 40/43/6/1/1 Arizona: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ Biden/Trump - 42/46 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 33/37/18/2
YES! Because swing state polling shows Biden either tied or slightly losing to Trump when it’s just them, head to head.
But the same polling shows Biden losing by a wider margin if you include Kennedy, West, and Stein.
3rd party votes will only help Trump.
Example:
Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Biden/Trump - 50/50
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 41/43/5/1/1
Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Biden/Trump - 46/46
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 38/40/16/4
Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Biden/Trump - 48/52
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 40/43/6/1/1
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden/Trump - 42/46
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 33/37/18/2
Exactly! Glad someone gets it