• lennybird@lemmy.world
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    8 months ago

    Wrote this before and I’ll write it again. People need to understand the broader context here:

    Tough for Biden to balance between:

    • Leaning too heavily into Israel and siding with genocide.

    • Leaning too heavily against, and being accused of being pro-Hamas.

    Worse, if Biden withdraws all aid to Israel and then Israel is hit with another terrorist attack, manufactured or not, that’s the end of Biden. I think we can all agree that right-wing media propaganda is very effective and the ads would write themselves.

    Within the electorate resides Jewish Americans who still largely support Israel by the polling, and the progressives and Palestinian Americans (a far smaller voting bloc).

    The best Biden is going to manage in toeing the line is singling out Netanyahu (who himself is unpopular in Israel) instead of Israel itself and actions like this.

    The risk obviously being that if Biden loses this election, the guy who wouldn’t just indirectly but likely directly commit genocide against Palestinians would come in and you certainly wouldn’t hear the words, “indiscriminate bombing” from Trump’s facial sphincter.

    • abbotsbury@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago
      • Leaning too heavily into Israel and siding with genocide.

      • Leaning too heavily against, and being accused of being pro-Hamas.

      So the choices are siding with genocide, and merely being accused of being pro-Hamas?

      Seems like a clear choice, since accusations of being pro-Hamas get flung around for merely wanting to genocide Palestinians just more slowly.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        The caveat being missed here is that aid to Israel is also contingent on their defense. If the long-time precedent for aid to Israel is withdrawn and more Jews die, how do you think that is going to bode for the votes of — let me check — 7.6 million Jewish Americans? Trump gets in, and then what? Biden fails the purity test and everyone critical of Biden pats themselves on the backs as Trump steamrolls Palestinians not just indirectly but directly?

        • Crikeste@lemm.ee
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          8 months ago

          Vote for genocide, because if you don’t there’s gonna be more genocide. Y’all doing backflips to cover your violent beliefs.

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Ah yes, that’s a completely accurate and fair description of the choice at hand and totally 100% not an obvious straw-man fallacy, leaving aside the cute little purity pyrrhic victory you’re setting yourself up for.

            • Crikeste@lemm.ee
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              8 months ago

              It’s very easy for me to be against genocide. Seems hard for you. 🤷🏼‍♂️

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                I’m completely for being against genocide!

                I’m just forward-thinking and very much against it for the next 4 years, let alone next 8 months. Some people see a few more chess-moves ahead than others, I guess. Seems hard for you.

          • frostmore@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            actually,there wouldn’t be anymore genocide had the 2 state solution been accepted.

            i mean to hamas, peace is shit but death is an honor.

    • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      It would not be the end for Biden. That’s hyperbole. Also why are we pressuring anti genocide people to come out and vote regardless, but taking it for granted that pro genocide people can’t be pressured at all.

      You know who you’re never going to get to vote for Biden again? The Muslim communities that are actually in mourning right now because they know people dying in Gaza. The same ones that are key voting groups in the Rust Belt. Which is the same area that Trump used to win in 2016.

      The Republicans are already calling him terrorist pedophile. Doing something to stop the GOP from running baseless attack ads is useless.

      The only one trying to lose this election is Biden. There are legions of progressives ready to hold their noses and vote for him. But he keeps running to the right. And we’ll keep staying home.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        You’re saying he’d be fine if a terrorist attack occurred after withdrawing aid to Israel? Sorry I just can’t agree with that. He’d be toast and the 7 million Jewish Americans would turn on him in a second, amplified all the more by right-wing propaganda that doesn’t just influence Republicans but the centrists and even many Democrats.

        He’s doing quite the opposite from running to the right. He’s completely shifted his position from lockstep support for Israel to letting ceasefire votes go through and publicly calling out Netanyahu.

        Biden already signaled he’d be harder on Israel than Trump. There really isn’t any more that needs to be said. It’s holding the nose and supporting Biden now for the next 8 months or suffer 4 years of the far, far worse guy.

    • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      Worse, if Biden withdraws all aid to Israel and then Israel is hit with another terrorist attack, manufactured or not, that’s the end of Biden. I think we can all agree that right-wing media propaganda is very effective and the ads would write themselves.

      Just scream “vote blue no matter who” at the pro-Israel Biden supporters.

      I’m sick of people not saying the quiet part out loud: If every time there is a choice between doing the things progressives and leftists want the threat of moderate and liberal voters abandoning the party then we’re fucked anyway. Even if you’re optimistic and say “No no, the number of progressives and leftists is growing! We just have to be patient!” Guess what happens when progressives and leftists finally start winning primaries? That’s right, moderates and liberals will abandon the party.

      There no point in delaying any longer. If the moderates and liberals will abandon the party if Biden stopped sending weapons to Israel then let’s get it over with.

      • agitatedpotato@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        That phrase was never meant for center right democrats, it was only there to sheepdog those who demand candidates not beholden to the billionaire class. You can’t “vote blue no matter who” those types, they’ll vote republican because at the end of the day most of them belong to social classes not threatened by conservatism, 4 years is no skin off their back, they may even see their IRAs grow. We’re nothing but a voting bloc to them, and that’s why things like Malcolm X’s quote on white moderates is so relatable to many non black progressives, both groups know what it’s like to be only included in appearance and only spoken to when votes are needed. How many more black elected officials do we have now, and yet the Democrats still fail Black voters perennially. I would have to ignore 60 year of history to think the progressive cause would do better if (and that’s a big if) we can get more of them elected. If there’s a path forward through the democratic party, it’s eluded the black community for long enough to see cop lynchings increase and I don’t think ‘progressive issues’ like ‘stop killing the environment before we all die’ have the time necessary to go the same route that’s been taken from Malcolm X to now.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        Entropy is a thing.

        What I mean by that is it’s far, far easier to smash a puzzle than to put it back together, let alone to incorporate new pieces. The damage done by Trump in merely 4 years could not be reversed if you got AOC with Bernie in there in 8 years let alone possibly 4. At this juncture, with the fragility of our system and the courts already stacked, maintaining some semblance of stability is overwhelmingly more crucial than expecting massive leaps.

        I’m all for going full anti-Israel; but that doesn’t change the fact that every single political advisor is pointing Biden to precarious polling data; that blindly withdrawing all aid to Israel is simply NOT a popular position going into the election — at least yet.

        • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Nothing you said negates the uncomfortable reality: If moderates and liberals refuse to compromise with leftists and progressives then fascism can’t be avoided. Do you want it now or later?

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Unfortunately it goes both ways; the difference is the “moderates and liberals” are the majority of the coalition while the progressives as the minority also know better enough to know what’s at stake from playing chicken with the moderates who probably can’t comprehend the game you’re even trying to threaten. I don’t buy into argument that it’s “fascism now or later,” — for that remains entirely speculative.

                • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  Okay. Then verbalize those disagreements in the context of my arguments so I don’t have to repeat myself.

                  For example

                  I don’t buy into argument that it’s “fascism now or later,” — for that remains entirely speculative.

                  How? If they won’t compromise with leftists and progressives now they won’t compromise when leftists and progressives start dominating primaries. I said this in my original comment.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    I’m pretty sure they are compromising? Are you saying Biden’s position is the same as it was the days after October 7th? Because it’s clearly not.

                    I’m not really integrated in hypotheticals insomuch as the reality at hand: this is election year. The primaries are over. Biden had moved on the issue of Israel already. And we (as well as Ukraine and Palestine) cannot afford as a nation to go through another 4 years.

                    So give me an argument that reflects polling that doesn’t shoot Democrats in the foot in November.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Then they’re shit at their jobs. This is public research polling, which usually lags behind internal private research.

          Gallup Link

          Good advisors would have been telling him support is trending down for months at this point. If you’re going to govern by polls, you should be getting ahead of them. Not throwing out bullshit self certification stuff for military aid to cover for the genocidal regime you’re illegally sending arms to.

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Isn’t that exactly what Biden is doing? Biden is shifting his stance inline with the polls and it’s working. While I do appreciate a leader who is willing to be bold and lead from the front regardless of public opinion because they can be very influential — I can see why they would be very nervous about getting ahead of the polls.

            For as I said: If he does something drastic like withdrawing aid to Israel and Israel gets hit with another October 7th-level attack — manufactured or legitimate — he’d be done for. There’s no suddenly stopping the inertia we’ve had for Israel as a foreign policy position for decades that has largely shared bipartisan support.

            And I mean come on, really? Do you really think you genuinely know better than his advisors and strategists and that they’re “shit at their jobs”? It’s a cute, confident thing to say… But if you’re really doubling down on that, perhaps you should contact them or look for a job opportunity. What’s more is that while your polling shows people disapprove of Israel’s actions, what we should do in response is the obvious follow-up, and withdrawing aid to them likely doesn’t share the same popularity. I wouldn’t want to be in Biden’s position or his strategists.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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              8 months ago

              Any advisor that would lie to the president is a bad advisor. That’s a ridiculous thing to argue over. That’s not my ego, or me thinking I’m better.

              And yes when Israel crosses the line the military aid becomes illegal. There’s no exception for “we’ve been doing it for so long”.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  It’s a response to what you said. Read the thread if you need context. I’m not going to restate it for you.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    Sorry I just don’t get what “lie” you’re referring to. Anyways, I’m getting nothing of value from this conversation.

    • archomrade [he/him]@midwest.social
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      8 months ago

      These are his ‘only’ choices only because identifying the broader issue of Israeli occupation and settlement (the core complaints of Palestinians and the reason why Hamas exists) puts at risk US interests in the region - namely Israel’s projection of strength throughout the middle east.

      The protection of US neo-colonial and imperial interests is the reason why Biden is in a tough position, and the reason why leftists will never be satisfied by stern words by Biden.

    • olivebranch@lemmy.ca
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      8 months ago

      Oh no, he will be accused of being pro-Hamas. Just like when you criritize him you are accused of being pro-Trump, or if you critize evil NATO countries are doing, you are called pro-Russian. If people are that stupid to not see this clear tactic that everyone who critiques me must support my enemies, then you should maybe they shouldn’t use the same tactic when it suits them.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago
        1. It’s a waste of time — Especially in an election year with so much on the line and post-primaries — to criticize Biden and instead better to criticize the groups who continue to support Israel. When the polls shift, the administration will shift… As has already occurred.

        2. I don’t give a fuck if you do, so long as you vote and support Biden in November. Palestinians and Ukrainians are counting on us, and the guaranteed-alternative is significantly-worse. I just had some other fool tell me they’re voting 3rd-party, so they are clearly supporting the enemies. I hope you’re smarter.

        • zbyte64@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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          8 months ago

          Except that the voting uncommitted has actually worked to move Biden on the issue (Dems calling for an election in Israel).

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Has it? The real issue convincing those who are undecided or supportive of Israeli action; it’s less to do with the minority progressives threatening to not vote because everyone knows progressives will hold their nose. But it’s the swing-voter moderates and centrists who are less informed on the issues and easily-swayable by political talking-points — and who make up a far larger chunk of the electorate — that Biden is concerned about. When 1/3 are unsure if Israel is committing genocide and 1/3 say they’re not, that is a problem.

        • dumpsterlid@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          It’s a waste of time — Especially in an election year with so much on the line and post-primaries — to criticize Biden and instead better to criticize the groups who continue to support Israel. When the polls shift, the administration will shift… As has already occurred.

          It is clear as day that the only thing actually making Biden think twice about unconditionally supporting the mass slaughter of Palestinians is that he might actually lose the election because his opinions are so unpopular and brutal on the Palestinian genocide.

          Right now is THE TIME to grind everything about the Democratic Party to a halt until Biden gets the message that halting the supply of weapons to an ongoing genocide is a non-negotiable aspect of getting leftist (and muslim) voters. He doesn’t give a shit though that much is clear, once the election is over if he wins than all the pressure to actually do anything other than say empty words goes away.

          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            As I’ve repeatedly pointed out, the problem is this can only go so far before it works against him. All Democrats are doing is splitting his attention between two groups — and if he pivots too much to one side, he risks alienating an arguably even LARGER group of voters.

            So as I said, the best bet is to focus not on finger-wagging to Biden, but finger-wagging to the actual Pro-Israelis and undecided (who are 1/3 of the electorate). Thus if you want to continue influencing Biden, continue influencing the polls themselves and Biden will reflect that.

            He doesn’t give a shit though that much is clear, once the election is over if he wins than all the pressure to actually do anything other than say empty words goes away.

            I think it’s just the opposite. I think similar to the Afghan withdrawal once an election has passed he will take a very Anti-Israeli stance while amplifying his support for Ukraine as well.

            • Jentu@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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              8 months ago

              He had no issues welcoming Nikki Haley voters to become part of his base probably because he knows how hard this election will be to win without the help of progressives and leftists. But he chose to move right instead of left, so he shouldn’t be surprised when people start treating him like a 2000s era republican.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                How has he moved right? Welcoming Haley voters is a sound strategy that is not mutually-exclusive to moving left, which he absolutely has on the topic of Israel.

                • Jentu@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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                  8 months ago

                  Welcoming Haley voters is moving right. Defunding the UNRWA is moving right. The spending bill he was happy to sign still sends billions to Israel. Also, in that bill, it would limit aid to the Palestinian Authority if “the Palestinians initiate an International Criminal Court (ICC) judicially authorized investigation, or actively supports such an investigation, that subjects Israeli nationals to an investigation for alleged crimes against Palestinians.” Biden being more than willing to sign a “snitches get stitches” bill, bullying the rest of the world into letting Israel do whatever they want surely isn’t moving left.

        • olivebranch@lemmy.ca
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          8 months ago
          1. They don’t shift policies, they shift marketing. They will continue to support Israel because they are treating you with Trump and you have to vote for them whatever they do. So change is never going to happen.
          2. Either vote third party or don’t waste your time voting. You are getting nothing better with democrats. Trump is a candidate that was placed there by the democrats so they can have a better chance in the elections. In next elections they will simply move the goal post and get someone even worse for Republican party and whatever you are voting against in these elections will be the democrat position in the next one.
          • lennybird@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Either vote third party or don’t waste your time voting. You are getting nothing better with democrats. Trump is a candidate that was placed there by the democrats so they can have a better chance in the elections. In next elections they will simply move the goal post and get someone even worse for Republican party and whatever you are voting against in these elections will be the democrat position in the next one.

            Ladies and gentlemen, a wedge-driving operative seeking to undermine Democrats and get Trump into office. There is literally zero evidence that “Trump is a candidate that was placed there by Democrats”. There is zero historical evidence voting third party does anything more than get the worse of two evils in office — and Ukrainians and Palestinians would much prefer Biden over Trump any day.

            This is the rhetoric of someone either not either not familiar with the political system, or intentionally trying to undermine the left by opening the door for conservatives.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                Nobody in the entire country would’ve disagreed with that strategy at the time, for quite literally everyone including Republicans thought Trump would doom the party. Hindsight is 20/20

                That, however isn’t the same as saying Trump is a Democratic plant colluding in disguise lol.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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                  8 months ago

                  Nobody in the entire country would’ve disagreed with that strategy at the time

                  you are now shifting the goalposts from “it didn’t happen” to “it was a good idea”.

                  That didn't happen.
                  And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
                  And if it was, that's not a big deal.
                  And if it is, that's not my fault.
                  And if it was, I didn't mean it.
                  And if I did, you deserved it.
                  
                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    lol logged into a different account I see, wow.

                    (funny this is the only comment you didn’t respond to, isn’t it FederatingIsToohard LOL)

            • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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              8 months ago

              There is zero historical evidence voting third party does anything more than get the worse of two evils in office

              no such evidence is possible: you can’t prove a counterfactual. you can’t know who the worse evil would be. further it’s not clear that so-called “third party” voters actually impact elections at all unless their candidate wins.

              • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                8 months ago

                No, we can. 3rd parties have been around for decades and won nothing and only exacerbated the goals of said parties by undermining the only party that has tangible results.

                You prove my point.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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                  8 months ago

                  we can.

                  it’s impossible to prove a counterfactual. you are either unfamiliar with the scientific method or you are deliberately lying.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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                  8 months ago

                  3rd parties have been around for decades and won nothing and only exacerbated the goals of said parties by undermining the only party that has tangible results.

                  this simply isn’t true and reflects a myopic view of history. so-called third parties have been with us almost since the inception of the us, and have accomplished things inconceivable to modern politicians.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    It simply is true. Even the longest serving Independent in congressional history caucuses and ran as a Democrat.

                    But do tell what any third party from Libertarians to the Green Party have accomplished, relative to Democrats for the working class.

                    Have you even heard of Nader or Perot?

            • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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              8 months ago

              This is the rhetoric of someone either not either not familiar with the political system, or intentionally trying to undermine the left by opening the door for conservatives.

              false dichotomy. they may be familiar with the political system (even more than you or i), and not believe the same things you do. they may be a leftist. you are making up attacks on their person instead of dealing with the substance of their claims.

                • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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                  8 months ago

                  that’s a thought-terminating cliche like saying it’s common sense. if you can’t support your position, that’s no reason to go off attacking other people as malevolent or incompetent.

                  • lennybird@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    My original statements remain largely untouched; it’s not my issue you deflected the aforementioned points. Why proceed further?

          • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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            8 months ago

            Trump is a candidate that was placed there by the democrats so they can have a better chance in the elections.