I’m not an analyst, but I think most EV makers are experiencing that demand is slower than expected this year.

431,000 deliveries would still be a small growth year-over-ear, but it would be a massive quarter-to-quarter drop.

This is normal for most companies. Q4 is top quarter, and Q1 is bottom quarter in most industries.
I think if you aren’t on the Musk cool aid, this isn’t a huge shock. Tesla is not the “miracle company” Musk and his fans claim.