Russia has launched an offensive into the Kharkiv region, and it has created a lot of alarmist news reports. In reality it is difficult to see what Russia’s plan is, and it is not self-evident that it is a smart use of resources. In this video I discuss whether we might be seeing a return to the fragmented command structures that Russia had in the beginning of the war.
I would like for Russia to fail miserably, but HERE I’m afraid it’s not as stupid as it could. Ukraine is notoriously low on ammunitions, so extending the active front line can deplete those supplies faster. I would expect Russia to try to deplete those supplies in order to force the front line where a shortage appears first. And they need to do it before the supplies come from the US, which is already starting to come. So it’s basically a window of opportunity.
If they concentrated on one place only, the Ukrainian supplies would last much longer.
I expect the massive Russian offensive to slow down in June once the US supply lines are established again.
But maybe I’m wrong. If Russia continues to push hard like this through June and after, I’ll be wrong. Unless they try to really push through western supplies themselves. That would be insane but possible I guess.