“probably” is more “likely fracture” if you get punched by them and you take the full 1500 newtons straight on the finger.

According to https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/bmt-2012-0004/html

(I can only access the abstract) fractures appear at an average of 1485 N, albeit in a different situation (jamming rather than strike)