Four years after the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), Mexico and the U.S. face the prospect of cheap Chinese electric vehicles dominating a fast-growing market and undermining GM, Ford, and Tesla.
Vehicles aren’t just one technology though, they are commodity items. Cellphones are more expensive than a decade ago, so are laptops. The average ICE car has gotten much more expensive over time. So, do you think EV technologies will get significantly cheaper quicker than inflation and the general direction of the industry?
The example of the mobile phone is pretty wrong. The first mobile cost about $4000 and the cheapest today still costs around $25. The original cars cost 30k adjusted for inflation with the cheapest today costing around 15.
Once again. It’s always held true. Outside factors could make it take longer but ultimately you said never. Which basically makes your original statement near impossible.
If you’re not adjusting for inflation you’re just betting that EV range won’t come down in price faster than inflation. Seems like a bit of a technicality, but I still wouldn’t bet on it myself. I have a feeling 350 miles of range is going to be pretty common in a few years.
I actually do think EV range will come down in price faster than inflation, and probably at a pretty significant rate too. I just think the the $15K, 350mi EV is unlikely to ever exist because:
The other basic components of a car have a cost, and that’s increasing because of inflation, but also increased safety standards and the additional “standard” options the industry pushes. I think the price of a car before the drive-train is getting pretty close to that $15K.
Bigger battery packs have less range efficiency because they have to haul around the rest of the battery. People keep pointing out the BYD Dolphin is sold in China for the equivalent of <$15K, but the base range is 187mi, meaning a 350mi range would need significantly more than double the batteries.
I expect (or at least hope) that range will become less of an issue as charging gets better and more ubiquitous, and owners get used to charging at home. I know some people actually do need 350mi+ range, but I think that’s pretty rare so high range cars won’t have the economies of scale that cheap, mainstream goods get.
That makes sense. Though it’s not unheard of for breakthroughs in battery chemistry to lead to increased energy density, which would increase range without increasing weight.
The Chinese government is subsidising the car industry to outcompete and destroy other manufacturers. These cars are being sold for less than they’re worth. This is why the EU is banning them. Its the same thing when you in wish and order something for 3 dollars. The Chinese government subsisdises the postage in China and international law means your post has to deliver it in your country.
Logically the refutation is kind of easy. Your prediction hinges on two things. A predicate that technology will never get better or cheaper.
Both of those things happen all the time as such, the refutation is simple.
Points to our entire technological history
Vehicles aren’t just one technology though, they are commodity items. Cellphones are more expensive than a decade ago, so are laptops. The average ICE car has gotten much more expensive over time. So, do you think EV technologies will get significantly cheaper quicker than inflation and the general direction of the industry?
The example of the mobile phone is pretty wrong. The first mobile cost about $4000 and the cheapest today still costs around $25. The original cars cost 30k adjusted for inflation with the cheapest today costing around 15.
Once again. It’s always held true. Outside factors could make it take longer but ultimately you said never. Which basically makes your original statement near impossible.
I said a decade ago, not the very first. I also should have said “smartphone”. Powering cars by battery isn’t a brand new technology.
I was responding to a meme that said $15K, not $15K (inflation adjusted).
If you’re not adjusting for inflation you’re just betting that EV range won’t come down in price faster than inflation. Seems like a bit of a technicality, but I still wouldn’t bet on it myself. I have a feeling 350 miles of range is going to be pretty common in a few years.
I actually do think EV range will come down in price faster than inflation, and probably at a pretty significant rate too. I just think the the $15K, 350mi EV is unlikely to ever exist because:
That makes sense. Though it’s not unheard of for breakthroughs in battery chemistry to lead to increased energy density, which would increase range without increasing weight.
The Chinese government is subsidising the car industry to outcompete and destroy other manufacturers. These cars are being sold for less than they’re worth. This is why the EU is banning them. Its the same thing when you in wish and order something for 3 dollars. The Chinese government subsisdises the postage in China and international law means your post has to deliver it in your country.