Trump is invariably within the margin of error. Add a bit of election interference, a third candidate to siphon votes, some gerry mandering, a bit of help from a partisan supreme court, …
If you regurgitate that rhetoric it’s more likely to happen.
I have a related degree.
An important way republicans will try to win the election for Trump, is to target democratic voters with propaganda which suggests that Biden is certain to win or that he’s more right wing than he actually is, thereby lowering democratic turnout.
They know they won’t convince young voters to vote conservative, they know they won’t win majority support, so they’ll try to convince progressive to not bother voting at all.
The polls are only showing that because he hasn’t clinched the nomination yet so the huge number of people who dislike both candidates don’t feel like they have to make a decision yet. Once that happens, I think we’ll see a big drop in his numbers. I could be wrong, but I’m usually not, at least when it comes to politics.
An august 1-2 poll of Michigan voters, 44% Trump, 44% biden, 8% other, just 5% undecided. It’s unlikely they’ll all split Biden, and even they disproportionately did, a Trump win would still be well within the margin of error.
Biden isn’t an unknown quantity. Trump isn’t an unknown quantity. Voters know what they stand for by now, they know what they’ll be like as president. And yet it’s still close.
Let’s put it this way, I admire your optimism if you assume Biden will win easily.
We will know soon enough. I was right when I said that there wouldn’t be a “red wave” during the midterms, in spite of what the polls said, and I’m positive that I am right when I say that the polls aren’t giving us a clear picture of what to expect of a third Trump presidential campaign.
Again, what I think we’re seeing in the polls reflects a dislike for both candidates, but not a dislike that’s evenly distributed or felt with the same degree of vehemence.
Teasing out that difference is difficult using traditional polling methods, but it becomes obvious when one looks at how many Americans find Trump objectively abhorrent.
My prediction is that Biden defeats Trump handily, not in a landslide, but convincingly enough to permanently show Trump the door.
Same thing happened in 2016, when IRC polling suggested Trump had something like a 1/3 chance of winning, but media painted a Clinton win being a certainty.
Aggregated polling data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
Trump is invariably within the margin of error. Add a bit of election interference, a third candidate to siphon votes, some gerry mandering, a bit of help from a partisan supreme court, …
I have a related degree.
An important way republicans will try to win the election for Trump, is to target democratic voters with propaganda which suggests that Biden is certain to win or that he’s more right wing than he actually is, thereby lowering democratic turnout.
They know they won’t convince young voters to vote conservative, they know they won’t win majority support, so they’ll try to convince progressive to not bother voting at all.
The polls are only showing that because he hasn’t clinched the nomination yet so the huge number of people who dislike both candidates don’t feel like they have to make a decision yet. Once that happens, I think we’ll see a big drop in his numbers. I could be wrong, but I’m usually not, at least when it comes to politics.
If you look at actual polls, you’ll find the number of undecided voters is surprisingly low.
Eg. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-trump-and-biden-on-course-for-tight-rematch/
An august 1-2 poll of Michigan voters, 44% Trump, 44% biden, 8% other, just 5% undecided. It’s unlikely they’ll all split Biden, and even they disproportionately did, a Trump win would still be well within the margin of error.
Biden isn’t an unknown quantity. Trump isn’t an unknown quantity. Voters know what they stand for by now, they know what they’ll be like as president. And yet it’s still close.
Let’s put it this way, I admire your optimism if you assume Biden will win easily.
We will know soon enough. I was right when I said that there wouldn’t be a “red wave” during the midterms, in spite of what the polls said, and I’m positive that I am right when I say that the polls aren’t giving us a clear picture of what to expect of a third Trump presidential campaign.
Again, what I think we’re seeing in the polls reflects a dislike for both candidates, but not a dislike that’s evenly distributed or felt with the same degree of vehemence.
Teasing out that difference is difficult using traditional polling methods, but it becomes obvious when one looks at how many Americans find Trump objectively abhorrent.
My prediction is that Biden defeats Trump handily, not in a landslide, but convincingly enough to permanently show Trump the door.
I may be wrong. We will see.
The polls didn’t say there would be a red wave. Aggregated polling suggested there was a 42% chance the democrats won at least the house.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
Same thing happened in 2016, when IRC polling suggested Trump had something like a 1/3 chance of winning, but media painted a Clinton win being a certainty.
Be more wary of how the media reports on polling.
Gerrymandering doesn’t affect presidential elections. Only the lower house of Congress and the state legislative branch.