SpaceX’s bid price was $680 million. The source selection statement did not reveal a price for Northrop’s bid other than saying it was “significantly higher.” Based on NASA’s budget request, Northrop’s bid was likely approximately twice as high.

But SpaceX did not just win on price. Its “mission suitability” score, effectively its technical ability to design, develop, and fly a vehicle capable of deorbiting the space station, was 822, compared to Northrop’s score of 589. SpaceX’s approach had one weakness, compared to seven weaknesses in Northrop’s bid, according to NASA evaluators.

Finally, the selection was also based on past performance by the contractors. SpaceX’s performance was rated as “very high,” given how it has delivered with the Cargo and Crew Dragon spacecraft and its Falcon 9 rocket. Northrop’s performance on Cygnus and its various rockets was given a “moderate” rating. Overall, the NASA evaluators expressed a “very high level” of confidence in SpaceX being able to complete the mission, whereas a “moderate level” of confidence was expressed in Northrop.

Yeah, not seeing the problem here.

In short, only one company—SpaceX—is thriving in NASA’s commercial space ecosystem.

That is not a great position for the space agency to find itself in, so there are plenty of questions for NASA and policymakers. Do they cave to traditional space contractors and go back to cost-plus contracts for most services? (Slow and expensive.) Do they turn over many of their spaceflight functions to SpaceX? (Not desirable or politically practical.) Do they continue to hope and wait for other companies to make the next step? (The early returns are not great.)

As compared to the past, when NASA was doing all 3 at once?