As the country’s new president took office last week, following a peaceful election in a region otherwise in turmoil, Somaliland hopes to see its independence recognised by the international community – having declared it in 1991.

The self-governing region within Somalia – which has never been recognised by the latter’s authorities – appears to be closer to being recognised than ever before.

Speaking at his inauguration in Hargeisa on 12 December, President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi said he would give “special importance to foreign policy” and pursue recognition for Somaliland from the international community based on a “valid legal argument". “My new government’s first job is to renew its relations with the rest of the world in order for us to be able to create a new Somaliland that will help the security of the entire region, including the Red Sea,” he declared.

The United States Ambassador to Somalia, Richard H. Riley, attended the president’s inauguration and said that Somaliland was “one of the best examples of democracy in action in Africa”.

The presidential election was held in November, following weeks of uncertainty. The results saw Mohamed Abdullahi, 69, leader of the Waddani party, also known as “Cirro”, secure the presidency with 64 percent of the vote, defeating the incumbent candidate, Muse Bihi, of the Kulmiye party. Approximately 53 percent of registered voters turned out – lower than the previous presidential election in 2017, when 64 percent of those registered voted.

Rumours began circulating last week that the US could declare Somaliland the world’s newest country when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. “Although not an official publication of incoming US President Donald Trump’s campaign, the Project 2025 conservative manifesto issued by some of his allies makes the case for official recognition of Somaliland,” wrote East Africa analyst Omar Mahmood on the think tank Crisis Group’s website.

Support for the region has grown among Republican US-Africa policy leaders – who are likely to be Africa advisors in Trump’s White House. Peter Pham, a former Africa envoy in Trump’s first term, told newsletter Semafor Africa that Somaliland’s democratic process had “demonstrated its attractiveness as a partner for the United States and other countries".

For Hafed Al-Ghwell, executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC, the incoming US administration could view Somaliland’s stability as “a strategic asset” against the backdrop of its “volatile neighbour” Somalia – and an opportunity to counter expanding influence in the region from Washington’s geopolitical rivals. Recognising Somaliland could also enable US intelligence to set up long term operations to monitor the movement of weapons in the region and the activities of China, which has a military base in neighbouring Djibouti, according to Semafor.

Somaliland announced de facto self-rule when declaring its independence from Somalia in 1991, after the fall of the infamous Somali leader Siad Barre. However, its existence has not been officially recognised by any country, restricting access to international finance and the ability of its 6 million inhabitants to travel. It has developed into a self-governed state, issuing its own currency and maintaining security forces and civilian administration from Hargeisa.

The recent election was the sixth in a row to be organised peacefully and bring political alternance. “Somaliland reinforced its reputation as one of the Horn of Africa’s stronger democracies by staging a successful presidential election and ushering in a peaceful transfer of power,” Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood wrote in a report. “On paper, Somaliland would welcome official recognition by a great power,” Mahmood added. “But if this is done unilaterally and with no major diplomatic spadework in advance, it would also supercharge tensions between Somaliland and Somalia, particularly along the contested boundary with Puntland.”

If Ethiopia has been open to building relations with Somaliland, recognition, Mahmood continued, could “prompt furious objections from Mogadishu’s allies in the region, such as Djibouti and Eritrea, as well as their friends farther afield, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt – further dividing the region”.