- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- [email protected]
Summary
Advisers to Donald Trump acknowledge that resolving the Ukraine war could take months, contradicting Trump’s campaign pledge of a “Day One” peace deal.
Trump’s incoming envoy, Keith Kellogg, suggested a 100-day target, but analysts consider even that timeline overly optimistic.
Russia has shown limited interest in proposed peace plans, and Trump’s team is contemplating freezing battle lines and offering Ukraine security guarantees.
Progress has been slow, hampered by diplomatic complexities and legal concerns, such as Kellogg postponing a pre-inauguration Kyiv visit due to the Logan Act.
Literally everyone who didn’t vote for Trump was saying this lol
The fact that Trump might be considering security guarantees is honestly kinda promising, though. Letting Ukraine into nato would be the single best broken clock moment this decade. I don’t think russia will be in a position to accept that within 100 days, but we can hope.
I think a lot of people might not realize how strategically constrained international relations are. There are only so many possible solutions to this conflict and Trump’s incompetence or malevolence can only interfere to a certain extent. Especially when others within the government who are negotiating this deal have real interests in protecting Ukraine.
That said, I think the most likely outcome is no deal but we’ll see.
I would want to see what caveats a nato peace deal comes with. I will bet it’s like “Ukraine gives up the territory Russia is currently occupying”
I think most of the western analysts think that this would be a possible compromise. Allowing Russia to hold Crimea and donbass, at least defacto, and Ukraine joins nato to prevent further incursion by Russia.
I can’t imagine Ukraine would go for it but we would have to see
Yeah, I think current polling shows that 60% of Ukrainians would be against such a deal, but 30% is also not far off from a majority.
Worth keeping in mind that Putin’s wargoals continue to be the puppeting of all of Ukraine, and he would not accept Ukrainian NATO membership, either.
Good analysis on the current state of the war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf2vSoWsmgI
The “What limits ukraine” section discusses the war support polling in Ukraine.
The only campaign promises Trump actually cares about are being a dictator and committing genocide.
“As soon as I become president, I can make a peace deal that’ll have the war in Ukrainian solved within 24 hours”.
They have ideas for a plan.
Who cares? Trump’s ‘peace deal’ will be trying to convince Zelenskyy that he should relinquish eastern Ukraine to end the war.
It’s up to the UK and the EU to support them now. I’m sorry. Many of my countrymen are the fucking worst.
Trump’s solution of “give Putin whatever he wants” wasn’t very appealing to the Ukrainians.
Yeah, even that feels outlandish.
TIL “Adviser” isn’t actually a misspelling of “Advisor” but an actual legitimate alternative spelling.
I was all ready to come in here and rake Reuters for such a basic error, but figured (as I usually do) that I should check my facts before making an ass of myself. Good thing I did…
Apparently adviser is more common in the uk, which makes sense as Reuters is headquartered in London apparently. Spelling is silly anyway do whatever u want m8
Lord let me be wrong.