Summary
EU industry chief Stéphane Séjourné warned Donald Trump that Europe cannot meet increased NATO defense spending targets, potentially exceeding 3% of GDP, if a trade war ensues.
Trump has long pushed NATO allies to contribute more, recently suggesting a steep 5% target, which many, including Germany and Italy, deem unrealistic.
Séjourné emphasized that national budgets strained by trade conflicts would hinder defense investments.
Trump’s protectionist measures, including potential universal tariffs and criticism of EU trade practices, further complicate Europe’s ability to balance defense and economic priorities.
It’s a smart move and from the EU’s point of view it locks Trump in.
The problem is the EU assumes Trump still comes from the beneficial side of nato … but he comes from the side of putin, china and the US economy, and all of them say hurt nato and the money comes pouring in.
Trump feels pressure to plain get out of nato or do crippling damage to it. He himself just does not know how exactly because the US needs nato’s intelligence machine.
Last time he demanded 2% across the board (some were lower, some higher), now that a bunch of countries bolstered spending to 2% or higher he is suddenly shouting I want 5% … in 2 years he will demand 8% …
He will just claim, unreasonably, “they can afford it” like he did last time.
I also expect him to demand they buy all weapons in the US, Germany would need to abandon its highly regarded modern tank program, no more Swedish fighter planes or EU designed firearms… The US tried it before with the JSF program, which turned out not quite beneficial for the EU.
At some point I can see the EU forming its own defense pact and mostly ignoring trump shouting into the nato box. But it will have weakened both, and putin sits on his throne and laughs.
Added to this: they do have him cornered on the gas market, if he does keep bullying over tariffs and higher nato payments and breaks agreements they will plainly tell him you will lose all of EU’s gas imports to putin. And that will damage his “Drill baby drill” program.