In August 2024, the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Fisheries tasked the Civil Aviation Authority of Norway with investigating the risks, socio-economic costs, and other consequences for Norwegian security and societal interests posed by potential rocket launches from Sweden passing over Norway. The completed report was presented on 25 February 2025 and made public on the CAA Norway website on 7 March. While the report’s summary states that there is not enough information to assess the “actual risks associated with such activities,” the document itself is more critical.

The report highlights flaws in the Swedish Space Corporation’s risk analysis (the commercial entity responsible for the Esrange Space Centre), particularly regarding population density along possible rocket flight paths:

“The analyses presented by SSC have not taken actual nor recent population data in the affected areas into account. Furthermore, neither the number of people living in the area nor the high number of tourists and other transient populations are represented. The affected areas in Norway are significantly more populated than the areas on the Swedish side, and it is not possible to find any trajectory from Esrange that does not overfly populated areas in Norway.”

It will be interesting to see if anything comes of this.