Same and I don’t think a housing crash would hurt just the poor like say a 2008 style crash (it would still hurt the poor because everything does). I also don’t think there is any other option other then a crash, things are too out of hand bubble wise. It would be cool if someone in power could get crazy serious about the issue but there is no will and it is likely to late.
I don't think a housing crash would hurt just the poor like say a 2008 style crash
How about you expand on your ideas a bit, because I could say I don’t believe in a lot of things without explaining why and that wouldn’t make me right.
No politicians want to tackle the issue because we’re the ones who guarantee risky mortgages through the CMHC.
But I think Canada’s next crash will not be part of a world wide event and will be a value crash more then a mortgage crash at a time when that upper middle class is narrowing. When a value crash happens the people who would buy the majority would see their own equity take a hit, limiting how much appetite most would have for buying more. the ultra rich put their money in real estate for investment or laundering, they would be effected but not as much long term (nice to be rich).
Then you have the companies, most are leveraged to the teeth and are not even concerned with the rental income in a lot of cases (they still get all the rent they can, they just see it as a side effect). In the case of a value crash they would be underwater and go overnight, this does not mean other larger entities would not jump in to buy them for pennies on the dollar, but it would remove a lot of the intensive that exists right now. This might mean rents go up when these companies get desperate but the renting class can not bare much more and would likely result in another crisis.
In short term this next crash (unless something really drastic or shady is done) will be incredibly bad for everybody, but in the medium term the poor have little to no capital to lose compared to everyone else and should see prices collapse and due to that being Canada’s largest business now would have to cater to the new market. In the long term many here in power would be back trying to pump up the housing bubble and most ultra rich would be hesitant to invest in a market that has shown it is a bubble (think Japan, Grease, Ireland, China, etc.).
Crashes only hurt regular people. People who have money/capital can wait it out and then buy even more housing to make the bubble bigger next cycle.
source: lived through 2008 and that fucking sucked
Yeah well high prices only hurt regular people, too!! It’s almost like we’re getting fucking squeezed by our economic masters, eh?
Same and I don’t think a housing crash would hurt just the poor like say a 2008 style crash (it would still hurt the poor because everything does). I also don’t think there is any other option other then a crash, things are too out of hand bubble wise. It would be cool if someone in power could get crazy serious about the issue but there is no will and it is likely to late.
I don't think a housing crash would hurt just the poor like say a 2008 style crashHow about you expand on your ideas a bit, because I could say I don’t believe in a lot of things without explaining why and that wouldn’t make me right.
No politicians want to tackle the issue because we’re the ones who guarantee risky mortgages through the CMHC.
I mean partly due to real estate now the largest contributor to the gdp (https://www.statista.com/statistics/594293/gross-domestic-product-of-canada-by-industry-monthly/ ) and partly due to the abundance of non home real estate supply, Canada is in a situation of not so much being in a bubble but being the bubble. In a 2008 type crash you have a large group of people with enough capital that could by out the foreclosed houses, the upper middle class (but not all of them https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-407-the-waffle-house-index-trump-book-quiz-the-big-trip-photographing-spain-s-ghost-towns-and-more-1.4821840/photographing-spain-s-ghost-towns-10-years-after-the-financial-crisis-1.4821871 ).
But I think Canada’s next crash will not be part of a world wide event and will be a value crash more then a mortgage crash at a time when that upper middle class is narrowing. When a value crash happens the people who would buy the majority would see their own equity take a hit, limiting how much appetite most would have for buying more. the ultra rich put their money in real estate for investment or laundering, they would be effected but not as much long term (nice to be rich).
Then you have the companies, most are leveraged to the teeth and are not even concerned with the rental income in a lot of cases (they still get all the rent they can, they just see it as a side effect). In the case of a value crash they would be underwater and go overnight, this does not mean other larger entities would not jump in to buy them for pennies on the dollar, but it would remove a lot of the intensive that exists right now. This might mean rents go up when these companies get desperate but the renting class can not bare much more and would likely result in another crisis.
In short term this next crash (unless something really drastic or shady is done) will be incredibly bad for everybody, but in the medium term the poor have little to no capital to lose compared to everyone else and should see prices collapse and due to that being Canada’s largest business now would have to cater to the new market. In the long term many here in power would be back trying to pump up the housing bubble and most ultra rich would be hesitant to invest in a market that has shown it is a bubble (think Japan, Grease, Ireland, China, etc.).
Thanks, good thought process 👍
2008 was not a regular speculative housing crash. It was a result of an incredibly fraudulent system propagated by the banks.