Right now, the signal-to-noise ratio is heavily tilted in favor of noise. But there are a few things that are certain. About 5 hours ago, the commander of Wagner, Denis Prigozhin, claimed that the RUMOD had ordered a missile strike on Wagner fighters. He followed this up with what can only be interpreted as a threat of violence again the MOD. This was followed up by a number of statements by both Prigozhin and other Wagner telegrams backing up his message. Given these threats’ public and unambiguous nature, this is very unlikely to be a false flag or 5D chess. Comments like this are at the heart of a state’s monopoly on violence. Such an attack can only be responded to by the Russian government as an existential threat. By all indications, this is exactly what has happened. Major generals have come out to publicly condemn Prigozhin, and a warrant has been issued for his arrest. That’s the summary of what we know for sure.

As far as on-the-ground information, there is very little to go on at the moment. Apparently columns of vehicles have been spotted in a city near the Russia-Ukraine border, but it is still unclear what units they belong to. Rosgvardia(Russian internal security forces) have clearly been deployed in force and are making themselves known in Moscow and Rostov. Obviously, Ukraine is watching this with great interest, and there have already been reports of advances in the Bakhmut area that could possibly be connected to this. In addition, the US government is clearly taking this seriously, with Biden having reportedly been briefed on the matter.