The world’s most productive agricultural regions face the greatest losses from climate change, with major farming areas in wealthy nations potentially losing as much as 40% of their maize and wheat production this century, a comprehensive new study has found.
In their analysis of more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries, a team of researchers from top U.S. and international institutions found that for every 1°C increase in global temperature, global food production could decline by approximately 120 calories per person per day—equivalent to 4.4% of current daily consumption.
The study, published in Nature, reveals that even when so-called climate adaptation strategies are undertaken, “breadbasket” regions are particularly vulnerable, and will face substantial reductions in the production of most key food crops, presenting a concerning outlook for global food security.
Indeed, it’s to be expected, that the climatic regions best-suited to such agriculture will move, generally polewards. So there may be potentially new ‘breadbaskets’ - but mainly in Russia and Canada, if growing season starts earlier. But 40% of whea and maize, is not 40% of food - there are other (new) crops, and we could also adapt diets, maybe we don’t need so much wheat and maize (leading anyway to obesity?). In the tropics it all depends on water management, need to store more.
. So there may be potentially new ‘breadbaskets’ - but mainly in Russia and Canada, if growing season starts earlier.
Not in Canada at least. As Professor Richard Alley explained on a YT lecture some years ago, the last ice age glaciers took lots of the soil from Canada and deposited it in the US, its why parts of tue US are a breadbasket.
You can not replace the vast agsriultral areas of the.US with the Tundra of Canada. I have no idea about Russia but one hypothesis for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was to sercure agricultural land for Russia… Ukraine has some of the most fertile soils on the planet.
