What a lot of people fail to grasp about why Ukraine isn’t advancing more quickly despite having superior equipment and training than the vast majority of the Russian army is the realities on the ground. For example, NATO tactics assume no, or very few mines. Ukraine is the most heavily mined place on Earth now. NATO tactics assume air superiority. Ukraine has very few fighter jets, and won’t receive new ones from Western countries for several more months.

The reality is that despite being better equipped and trained, there are still several extremely difficult obstacles in the way of them reclaiming their land, and so they’re taking it fairly slow in an effort to not throw lives away unnecessarily. Even so, every square inch they liberate is paid for in blood.

Still, I’m optimistic about the next few months. Ukrainians just reached the first Surovikin line near Novoprokopivka, and the latest reports suggest they’ve already entered the eastern side of that village. If they can take it and the high ground in that area, they’ll have about 12km of contact with the trench network. If they can make a breakthrough at any point along that line, they can assault the length of it from 3 different directions, and collapse a whole front.

Also, with the death of Prigozhin, there’s a decent chance of more unrest in Moscow, which would likely move Russians off the front line to quell any dissent back home. That, combined with morale among the Russian forces being at an all-time nadir makes me optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of advancing to Tokmak this year. And Tokmak is a lynchpin of the entire Russian defense in the area. It’s a major hub, as it is where all of the rail lines from the east join the west. If the Ukrainians control Tokmak, practically the entire area south of the Dnipro will be cut off from supplies.

So yeah, fingers crossed!