not enough of those famous and important people moved from Twitter to Mastodon

This is the reason I’m still using Twitter. I use Twitter not to tweet about what I did, but to get news from people I follow.
Tech people can move to Mastodon because their circles are moving, but not with common people.
For me, personally, Mastodon is like empty void. No one to follow and I can’t interact with people who share same interests because they only exist on Twitter (since the “famous people” isn’t moving from Twitter)

The famous people did move over for certain specific groups; app developers are pretty much all on Mastodon now, the WWDC chatter / visionOS experimentation / etc is way more active on there than on Twitter. (Of course if any group ought to be uniquely pissed off at both Twitter and Reddit, it’s app developers)

Reddit migration will succeed for some communities and fail for others. Generic subs can live on with new mods and new subscribers. They’re not much different from FB or Twitter. Just mindless content to feed that infinite scroll.

Specialized subs where the community as a whole (or a majority at least) decides to move to a new home will move (or have moved already), because for those the community is what matters, not the venue.

I think you’ve nailed it here, though perhaps a bit cynical. I personally wanted to see scientists and journalists, but few were on mastodon at the time. It’s a tiny bit better now but still not good.

Compounding problems is mastodons hate for indexing and search. This made it nearly impossible to actually find the few people I would have been interested in on mastodon.

The decentralization and poor UX I think was also a big factor for many. Apps like Ivory have helped the UX a lot but it’s still not as easy to use and discover new people as twitter.

%100 this. I have Mastodon and use it sparingly because I found a good community but I still find myself going back to Twitter because most of the people I follow on Twitter haven’t moved and most of the people I follow on Twitter are celebrities or influencers. The only way a #twittermigration will work is if most of the influencers and celebrities move off the platform as that’s the content most regular users go for. With Reddit however we just need people that create good content to move, the lurkers will follow the content regardless of how “complicated” the platform is. The reddit lurkers won’t stay on Reddit if there isn’t any quality content being posted there, they may be satiated with reposts for a while but eventually they will leave and go looking for the content and if that content is on Kbin/Lemmy they will come here.

I think it’s because there was a hope for wholesale migration of most/all users from Twitter to the Fediverse. Or at the very least for enough migration to make Twitter a barren landscape that would precipitate its imminent demise. Neither of those happened. Of course, neither of those are realistic outcomes either.

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From your second link, the average monthly users have gone from 2.3m to 1.3m since the Twitter migration. That is “falling off a cliff”, imo.

The author describes legit problems. Discovery on Mastodon is bad - it’s hard to find users and trending topics. The usability issues the author describes are legit.

Twitter‘s real world relevance is highly overvalued. Journalists who practically live there instead of doing journalist stuff elevating its cultural impact manifold. Mastodon shows how much of this impact is lost, if there aren’t enough promoters. The grassroots picture Twitter painted of itself wasn’t ever close to true, it was just a single-way microphone for narcissists. Reddit‘s cultural value is highly underrated in comparison and I believe a good alternative can catch enough nexus posters who will keep good content coming. As with every FOSS project the biggest enemies of success are the people within. Lemmy (as Mastodon) has a lot of difficulties with fracturing due to its federated nature and the differentiation between kbin and Lemmy is already divisive for the community. I hope the more technical minded audience of Reddit is able to overcome these barriers for entry and find a new home here.

Underrated reply. Twitter is definitely a place where a bunch of people follow a small group of famous people and content creators almost like lemmings. (The irony that lemmy isn’t like despite users being called lemmings isn’t lost on me)

Mastodon is a bit better, but also strangely seems to be focused on big names and groups as well, just different ones and to a lesser extent. It’s one of the reasons I spend less time on there and more on Kbin / Lemmy.

On the positive side, it’s from Mastodon that I learned about Kbin and Lemmy to begin with.

If you’re expecting everyone to leave Reddit, you’re going to be disappointed. Most Reddit users do. Not. Care. They’ll stay for as long as Reddit entertains them.

The Twitter migration was actually a really great thing for the Fediverse. It diversified Mastodon, and made it an actually lively space. It’s still a nerdy space, but it’s so much more than it was. It’s a genuinely general and engaging microblogging space. And while, yes, it doesn’t have everything that draws the Twitter clout chasers, celebrity watchers, and journalists or politicians, it’s a viable alternative for people who are looking to actually engage with each other.

The same is true here, and will be true after tomorrow.

Edit: Autocorrect hates me

I don’t think it’s a question of enough people ditching Reddit, but just enough to create and/or provide quality content.

And really that doesn’t matter as much as participating in a platform that’s free of all the BS Reddit evolved into. Fediverse has a platform free of almost everything long term Redditors came to hate.

I suspect that I’m amongst the majority here in that I still use reddit as well as Kbin - at present the fediverse front ends just need time to introduce features to make them more usable.