Finland says damage to an underwater natural gas pipeline with Estonia on Sunday may have been deliberate and was probably caused by “external activity”.

The Baltic-connector pipeline was shut down after a sudden drop in pressure. A telecoms cable was also damaged.

Finland’s prime minister said on Tuesday that the source of the leak had been found and was being investigated by both countries.

Petteri Orpo added that the cause was not yet clear.

Finnish sources have told the BBC the suspicion falls on Russian sabotage as “retribution” for Finland joining Nato in April this year.

Norway’s seismological institute, Norsar, said it had detected a “probable explosion” along Finland’s Baltic Sea coast at 01:20 on Sunday (22:20GMT on Saturday). The event was measured at 1.0, far smaller than the explosions that targeted the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.

That appeared to contradict a statement from Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation (KRP) that there were “no indications” that explosives had been used, although it added the damage was so serious it was expected to take months to repair.

Finnish authorities said damage to the cable and pipeline damage happened at two different spots in Finland’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

“The discovered damage could not have been caused by normal use of the pipeline or pressure fluctuations,” Mr Orpo told a press conference. Other possible causes such as seismic activity had already been ruled out.

The pipeline is Finland’s only direct link to the wider European Union’s gas network. Nevertheless, Mr Orpo said there were enough alternative sources of gas to ensure the country’s energy security was not at risk.

Jens Stoltenberg, the head of the Nato military alliance of which both Finland and Estonia are members, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that the bloc was “sharing information & stands ready to support Allies concerned”.

“Frankly we were expecting something like this sooner,” a Finnish source told the BBC’s security correspondent, Frank Gardner. However, he says public statements from Helsinki have carefully avoided directing blame at Moscow in case a lengthy inquiry comes up with inconclusive results.

The prospect that the damage could be deliberate has pushed up European gas prices.

UK prices jumped as much as 13.5% on Tuesday to 124 pence per therm (a measurement of gas) - having traded as low as 88 pence on Friday.

Prices were already rising after Israel closed one of its largest gas fields, Tamar, in the Mediterranean Sea, in response to the recent aggression by Hamas.

The damage to the Baltic-connector pipeline has revived concerns about energy security following the Nord Stream pipeline blasts last year.

The Baltic-connector opened in 2020, and is used to send gas between Estonia and Finland, depending on which country is most in need at any point.

The pipeline has been Finland’s only natural gas import channel since Russian imports were halted in May last year. Natural gas accounts for about 5% of Finland’s energy consumption.

  • variaatio@sopuli.xyz
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    1 year ago

    One must understand for example Russian planes violate Finnish airspace multiple times per year. Not much couple seconds, just enough to demand a scramble alert and then diplomatic rebuke.

    When after Ukraine war started Dimitry Medvedev threatened Finland with nukes and international commentators went “oooh they threatened with nukes”. That is called Tuesday. Russia has given veiled threats about nukes since early 2000. Well more like they have done it ever since they have nukes in the 50’s. There was just the pause of 90’s, when they were in such chaos and weakness they didn’t have time to do that.

    We put sanctions on them after 2014, suddenly the hygiene standards of Finnish food processing industry isn’t good enough (despite actual Russian consumers special near Finland liking Finnish products for being higher quality). Couple months goes diplomatic meeting is held, everything fine again.

    Other time we had a tiff over something and this time they cut the export of raw lumber to Finland. Again couple months diplomatic meeting. Its fine again.

    It’s a game. They like to test the waters, do annoying thing this or inconvenient thing that and see the response.

    It isnt even that they have specific goal in mind often. The just send up “test balloons” and also on other hand demonstrations/ shows of force “see we dare to send this jet fly through your airspace for 2 seconds”.

    As such Finns are pretty used to it and it is taken as the diplomatic and geopolitical game it is.

    It is a balancing act and game. You have to show enough response to show there is line and too overt actions is not tolerated. On the otherhand you shouldn’t respond too forcefully since it shows you can be influenced/are loosing your cool and can’t keep wits about you. Thus meaning they would probably do even more stuff to try to imbalance you.

    Ofcourse there is the “so strong response they would never dare do anything again”, but that is known here abouts as “going to war”. Not exactly optimal solution given you just made your own country into a battle field with battlefield damage incurring.