I don’t know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.
ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn’t be in, just your predictions.
Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?
Not especially related to the OP, but another thought I have…
NZ First’s rise after it became apparent via polling that they were more than a chance of returning suggests to me that there is potentially more support for small parties than voting intention suggests.
I think kiwis are smart and when asked who they’ll vote for probably aren’t saying TOP because they don’t see them as likely getting in & thus their vote being wasted.
Ideally the thresholds would be adjusted which would make it easier, but it also makes me wonder if there’s not a bit of a strategic blunder by both National & Labour to not do an electorate deal with TOP. That would give both of them an option in the centre to prop up their governments, even if on just confidence & supply and help blunt the influence of Act / NZ First, and NZ First / Greens respectively.
I’m generally a fan of lowering the threshold to 1 seat (~0.8%), but on the flip side that would mean a bunch of loony conspiracy parties would also get in so I’m not too sure.
Ideally Kiwis would vote for local candidates less on party grounds, and we would see other parties (or independents even) heading to parliament.