That’s fair. I don’t have numbers to back this, but I do know a little about psychology related to sunken cost. We’re drawn to embrace and support what we’ve invested in. Actually I’ve got some numbers that “sorta” back it depending on how you look at them.
CK2 sold 2M copies in about 2.5 years. CK3 sold the same number of copies in 1.5 years. Why is that an argument that CK2’s DLC is hurting CK3 sales? Two reasons. First, because Paradox is a MUCH bigger company now than it was in 2014 (thanks in part to Cities Skylines, topically speaking), and CK3 would/should be riding on the coattails of CK2 and isn’t. Second, because those 2M sales for CK2 includes an added 7M DLC sales, and DLCs arguably reduce sales a bit simply by existing (I know I was in the boat of “holding off a while” because of the DLC).
IDK, I think that form of argument is a bit like reading tea leaves, up to interpretation and easy to align with preconceived notions.
What we need to make a strong argument is a comparison with similar games where one set follows a release model and the other follows a DLC model. Then look at initial sales vs lifetime sales, development budgets, how much discounts impact sales, etc.
That said, a game like CK or EU targets a niche audience, so they want to get more value from the initial game development, so DLC makes sense. The dev cost vs initial sales probably isn’t very favorable vs mass appeal games, so they use DLC to recoup that cost as a form of customer retention. So drawing direct comparisons will be difficult.
IDK, I think that form of argument is a bit like reading tea leaves, up to interpretation and easy to align with preconceived notions.
I’m utilizing established psychological and business concepts and applying them to the gaming industry only to recognize that the outcome is a number I would have predicted. But, I never mind a good cup of tea either, I just use those leaves to guess the stock market (kidding, obviously). The stock market, ironically, seems to agree with me on this. CK3 released 9/2020 in the middle of COVID. Paradox stock went up $10 per share coming up on release date, held for a few months, and then broke falling to pre-CK3 levels fairly quickly. Compare to other gaming companies. Blizzard/Activision grew 20% in the same timeline with no coinciding game releases at all.
Obviously, you have to take any stock change with a grain of salt, as news and random events can affect stock prices. But product expectations (both internal and external) drive stock. Of course, one could just say “maybe CK3 underperformed against expectations, but it’s not related” but if I have to pick between the model that predicted reality and a model that has to say “maybe”, I pick the former.
What we need to make a strong argument is a comparison with similar games where one set follows a release model and the other follows a DLC model. Then look at initial sales vs lifetime sales, development budgets, how much discounts impact sales, etc.
Are you suggesting that games are somehow “different” from other market segments in this way, despite prima facie being affected by exactly that?
That said, a game like CK or EU targets a niche audience, so they want to get more value from the initial game development, so DLC makes sense
I don’t disagree. Any niche product with a highish budget needs to consider creative monetization strategies. If you can’t sell the product for enough to make a profit, then you can’t really justify developing it. That doesn’t mean the strategy paradox used for CK2 wasn’t going to affect sales for CK3. I don’t know what I’d do if I were a decisionmaker at Paradox because it’s not an easy problem. I’m not saying they didn’t do the best they could, only that I am fairly convinced CK2’s model influences the sales of CK3.
I’m using established psychological and business concepts
I meant looking at one data point and extrapolating a pattern and causation. All your data point shows is that CK3 sold more than CK2 over a shorter time span, but maybe not as much more as one might expect. There are a lot of other valid ways one might interpret that data.
CK2’s model includes the sales of CK3
Well sure, any sequel is impacted by the game it’s succeeding. That’s true for pretty much any product.
The question is, did CK2’s model hurt CK3’s sales long term? Paradox’s DLC model is a long term strategy, so initial sales are a bit less interesting than longer term sales than in other games, but they’re still indicative of interest and how successful future DLC releases are likely to be.
To get that answer, we need to compare Paradox’s model vs similar games that use a different model. That’s the same way you’d do it in stock market analysis if you’re trying to identify why a stock movement happened.
That’s fair. I don’t have numbers to back this, but I do know a little about psychology related to sunken cost. We’re drawn to embrace and support what we’ve invested in. Actually I’ve got some numbers that “sorta” back it depending on how you look at them.
CK2 sold 2M copies in about 2.5 years. CK3 sold the same number of copies in 1.5 years. Why is that an argument that CK2’s DLC is hurting CK3 sales? Two reasons. First, because Paradox is a MUCH bigger company now than it was in 2014 (thanks in part to Cities Skylines, topically speaking), and CK3 would/should be riding on the coattails of CK2 and isn’t. Second, because those 2M sales for CK2 includes an added 7M DLC sales, and DLCs arguably reduce sales a bit simply by existing (I know I was in the boat of “holding off a while” because of the DLC).
IDK, I think that form of argument is a bit like reading tea leaves, up to interpretation and easy to align with preconceived notions.
What we need to make a strong argument is a comparison with similar games where one set follows a release model and the other follows a DLC model. Then look at initial sales vs lifetime sales, development budgets, how much discounts impact sales, etc.
That said, a game like CK or EU targets a niche audience, so they want to get more value from the initial game development, so DLC makes sense. The dev cost vs initial sales probably isn’t very favorable vs mass appeal games, so they use DLC to recoup that cost as a form of customer retention. So drawing direct comparisons will be difficult.
I’m utilizing established psychological and business concepts and applying them to the gaming industry only to recognize that the outcome is a number I would have predicted. But, I never mind a good cup of tea either, I just use those leaves to guess the stock market (kidding, obviously). The stock market, ironically, seems to agree with me on this. CK3 released 9/2020 in the middle of COVID. Paradox stock went up $10 per share coming up on release date, held for a few months, and then broke falling to pre-CK3 levels fairly quickly. Compare to other gaming companies. Blizzard/Activision grew 20% in the same timeline with no coinciding game releases at all.
Obviously, you have to take any stock change with a grain of salt, as news and random events can affect stock prices. But product expectations (both internal and external) drive stock. Of course, one could just say “maybe CK3 underperformed against expectations, but it’s not related” but if I have to pick between the model that predicted reality and a model that has to say “maybe”, I pick the former.
Are you suggesting that games are somehow “different” from other market segments in this way, despite prima facie being affected by exactly that?
I don’t disagree. Any niche product with a highish budget needs to consider creative monetization strategies. If you can’t sell the product for enough to make a profit, then you can’t really justify developing it. That doesn’t mean the strategy paradox used for CK2 wasn’t going to affect sales for CK3. I don’t know what I’d do if I were a decisionmaker at Paradox because it’s not an easy problem. I’m not saying they didn’t do the best they could, only that I am fairly convinced CK2’s model influences the sales of CK3.
I meant looking at one data point and extrapolating a pattern and causation. All your data point shows is that CK3 sold more than CK2 over a shorter time span, but maybe not as much more as one might expect. There are a lot of other valid ways one might interpret that data.
Well sure, any sequel is impacted by the game it’s succeeding. That’s true for pretty much any product.
The question is, did CK2’s model hurt CK3’s sales long term? Paradox’s DLC model is a long term strategy, so initial sales are a bit less interesting than longer term sales than in other games, but they’re still indicative of interest and how successful future DLC releases are likely to be.
To get that answer, we need to compare Paradox’s model vs similar games that use a different model. That’s the same way you’d do it in stock market analysis if you’re trying to identify why a stock movement happened.