• It has been announced that China’s Defense Minister Gen. Li Shangfu will be replaced. Li was appointed by President Xi Jinping in March, but has not been seen in public since he addressed the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing on Aug. 29. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Li’s ousting, which was revealed at the end of a meeting of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, follows the dismissal of Foreign Minister Qin Gang in July, who was relieved amid speculation about a potentially compromising affair during his time as a US ambassador. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While the removal of both Li and Qin likely marks an end to their political careers, it is not yet known whether they will face prosecution or other legal action. Li is also facing sanctions related to his overseeing of weapon purchases from Russia that bar him from entering the country. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• President Xi, who signed the executive order revoking Li’s position, has ambitions to turn China’s military into a “world-class” force by 2049. He has overseen several reshuffles since taking power in 2012, including within the rocket force, which maintains Beijing’s expanding nuclear arsenal. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Andrew Yang, a former Taiwanese defense minister-turned-scholar of the Chinese military, has claimed that the dismissal of Li was designed to “send a message…that [Xi] is strictly in control.” New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Li’s departure comes just before China’s annual Xiangshan Forum, a gathering of Chinese and foreign military experts and officials. Li had notably refused to speak with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the regional security forum in Singapore in June. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-China narrative:

• Though it’s not uncommon for officials to be removed for corruption, particularly from within the capital-intensive Rocket Force, Pres. Xi’s latest dismissals point less to a crackdown on corruption and more to a series of miscalculated appointments. Xi spent his first seven years in control consolidating power, and it looks like he is still prioritizing personal authority over displaying military strength toward the US. The CCP will continue to be led by Xi for the foreseeable future, but it won’t be declaring war any time soon.
  Atlantic Council

Pro-China narrative:

• Minister Li’s decorated military career is, unfortunately, the reason for his dismissal. Having risen the ranks from director of China’s main satellite launch sites in Xichang to head of the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission before becoming Defense Minister, he was eventually placed under sanctions by then US Pres. Donald Trump due to his involvement in the development program. This caused trouble for the CCP, which is why it was necessary to relieve him of his duties.
  Global Times

Nerd narrative:

• There’s a 7% chance that there will be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)