This whole story is beyond weird. None of it makes any sense - a fast moving coup against an established government, an abrupt about face, and then exile into a neighboring country - only to come back “home” to pick up your prized pistol and a few other things. Oh, and also to meet up the leader you tried to overthrow.
But, for what goal, though? I’m asking because I’m genuinely curious. It made Putin look weak and it really seemed like he and this crony cabinet were on the run. It’s not like Putin squashed down the rebellion in a show of force - instead, Wagner said “yeah, it’s all good, imma turn around now and peace out to Belarus. Lates”.
Did it really make him look weak, though? He’s consolidated the military under the MoD umbrella, his comradery with Lukashenko likely improved, the West is admitting that Ukraine is running out of ammo (thus the cluster ammunition) and he (or rather Lukashenko) has a strong private army close to the Ukrainian border, about 90km from Kiev.
The only people claiming his weakness were some Western officials and the press and both haven’t been particularly trustworthy nor well informed in their assessments of the situation thus far.
Edit: Not to forget that Prigozhin made it clear that his problems weren’t with Putin but with MoD leadership/Shoigu.
He’s consolidated the military under the MoD umbrella,
Has he? He lost capable military leaders from Wagner, and those forced to fight alongside Russian troops fight now alongside troops which bombed them before. I hardly imagine there is much trust or comrades between Russian military and Wagner troops.
his comradery with Lukashenko likely improved,
It strengthened Lukashenko.
the West is admitting that Ukraine is running out of ammo (thus the cluster ammunition)
… which has nothing to do with the attempted coup
and he (or rather Lukashenko) has a strong private army close to the Ukrainian border, about 90km from Kiev
It really depends if that army still fights for Putin. The smear-campaign against Prigozhin wouldn’t make sense in this scenario.
Putin looks like messing about, trying to make the best of the situation, with no clear plan. He looks weak, and maybe worse, plan-less.
That’s my guess - a coordinated effort to look weak to root out any issues with the clans that run each area. Loyalty check and you get to fuck with the West’s head a bit. If Putin wanted him dead he’d already be dead. There are useful idiots out there and Putin loves to look better than everyone else around him. Reminds me of a former US President …
I don’t think any of this was coordinated. I used to live in Russia and the amount of rouge corruption is staggering. This sounds like an argument that got out of hand. It just so happens that the people arguing had troops.
No problem. However, I don’t know what I’m talking about any more then the next guy.
I’ve lived in US for a while now, so maybe things have changed, but i don’t think they have.
In popular media (after USSR collapse, but before Putin clamped down on media) there was a common trope of people stationed in military bases selling off military equipment. It was a common joke. And seeing how bad and unmaintained the Russian equipment was in the beginning of the invasion (and still is), I’m sure that trope is still accurate.
Heck, I’ve heard stories of reactive armor not working on Russian tanks, because instead of being filled with explosives, they’re filled with sand, or air. I know that it’s not ok to have sympathy on the internet, but I can’t imagine what my life would have been like if I still lived there. I’m the perfect age to appear in “Drone drops grenade on a Russian invader” video.
I suspect he may be grooming Pregozin to take over the presidency. Maybe Putin’s health is failing. If Putin really orchestrated all this, it’s one of the only scenarios that explains it well.
What if it’s a way they think they can get away with nukes, without article 5? Nukes in Belarus…oh sowee Wagner got a hold of tactical nukes from Belarus those scoundrels and used them welp nothing we can do. But they rebelled so not Russia obviously!
This whole story is beyond weird. None of it makes any sense - a fast moving coup against an established government, an abrupt about face, and then exile into a neighboring country - only to come back “home” to pick up your prized pistol and a few other things. Oh, and also to meet up the leader you tried to overthrow.
Because it’s likely theater …
But, for what goal, though? I’m asking because I’m genuinely curious. It made Putin look weak and it really seemed like he and this crony cabinet were on the run. It’s not like Putin squashed down the rebellion in a show of force - instead, Wagner said “yeah, it’s all good, imma turn around now and peace out to Belarus. Lates”.
Did it really make him look weak, though? He’s consolidated the military under the MoD umbrella, his comradery with Lukashenko likely improved, the West is admitting that Ukraine is running out of ammo (thus the cluster ammunition) and he (or rather Lukashenko) has a strong private army close to the Ukrainian border, about 90km from Kiev.
The only people claiming his weakness were some Western officials and the press and both haven’t been particularly trustworthy nor well informed in their assessments of the situation thus far.
Edit: Not to forget that Prigozhin made it clear that his problems weren’t with Putin but with MoD leadership/Shoigu.
Has he? He lost capable military leaders from Wagner, and those forced to fight alongside Russian troops fight now alongside troops which bombed them before. I hardly imagine there is much trust or comrades between Russian military and Wagner troops.
It strengthened Lukashenko.
… which has nothing to do with the attempted coup
It really depends if that army still fights for Putin. The smear-campaign against Prigozhin wouldn’t make sense in this scenario.
Putin looks like messing about, trying to make the best of the situation, with no clear plan. He looks weak, and maybe worse, plan-less.
You have some valid points there. In the end I don’t know more than you. :)
That’s my guess - a coordinated effort to look weak to root out any issues with the clans that run each area. Loyalty check and you get to fuck with the West’s head a bit. If Putin wanted him dead he’d already be dead. There are useful idiots out there and Putin loves to look better than everyone else around him. Reminds me of a former US President …
I don’t think any of this was coordinated. I used to live in Russia and the amount of rouge corruption is staggering. This sounds like an argument that got out of hand. It just so happens that the people arguing had troops.
I defer to you then. Thanks for sharing 🙂
No problem. However, I don’t know what I’m talking about any more then the next guy. I’ve lived in US for a while now, so maybe things have changed, but i don’t think they have. In popular media (after USSR collapse, but before Putin clamped down on media) there was a common trope of people stationed in military bases selling off military equipment. It was a common joke. And seeing how bad and unmaintained the Russian equipment was in the beginning of the invasion (and still is), I’m sure that trope is still accurate.
Heck, I’ve heard stories of reactive armor not working on Russian tanks, because instead of being filled with explosives, they’re filled with sand, or air. I know that it’s not ok to have sympathy on the internet, but I can’t imagine what my life would have been like if I still lived there. I’m the perfect age to appear in “Drone drops grenade on a Russian invader” video.
That “mutiny” was very disappointing…
I suspect he may be grooming Pregozin to take over the presidency. Maybe Putin’s health is failing. If Putin really orchestrated all this, it’s one of the only scenarios that explains it well.
What if it’s a way they think they can get away with nukes, without article 5? Nukes in Belarus…oh sowee Wagner got a hold of tactical nukes from Belarus those scoundrels and used them welp nothing we can do. But they rebelled so not Russia obviously!