Our News Team @ 11 with host Snot Flickerman

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Cake day: October 24th, 2023

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  • Snot Flickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zonetopolitics @lemmy.worldThe Blowout No One Sees Coming
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    13 hours ago

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections

    1. Why is 538 still respect when it’s a shell of what it used to be?

    2. Nate Silver is a degenerate gambler who was gambling up to $10k a day while running 538, and has been completely taken in by gambling bros chicanery.

    3. That’s why suddenly everyone cares about what gamblers say about who is going to win, despite the fact that gambles are heavily gamed by the richest. Of course it looks like Trump is favored to win if you look at gambling polls, because all the rich twats who are for him and dropping the bets to make it look like he’ll win. These are the type of scumfucks that have sucked in Silver.

    In May 2023, ABC News hired G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for The Economist who has often been described as a rival of Silver, to head the site as editorial director of data analytics. At 538, Morris developed a new election forecasting model of the 2024 election. In the leadup to Biden’s withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. Silver criticized Morris’s model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency, and at worst as being “buggy”. The election forecast remained suspended for a month after Biden withdrew, before being replaced by a new model for Kamala Harris versus Trump that put more emphasis on polling.

    Who cares about Silver’s opinion, but it’s super clear Morris was fucking up from the get-go.