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Cake day: April 6th, 2024

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  • I don’t see how it can be worthwhile without a clutch pedal though since that is the heart of the manual experience. This is just adding a handheld input that modifies the accelerator response in a way that seems to mimic the quirks of an entirely different mechanical system (that being the paddle style shifters of automatic transmissions, not actual manuals). These at least served some purpose by giving the driver more control over shift points. Now imagine you never drove a manual or used paddle shifters in the first place, which is becoming the norm.





  • What a mess. It seems like the fundamental issue here is allowing the grandfathering of old NEM rate structures, much like CA allows folks to grandfather in their old property taxes while screwing over new purchasers. Nobody should expect rate certainty for 20 years into the future, that’s just an absurdly long time period to expect guaranteed rate structures.

    It’s not that complicated at a high level really - when nobody has solar, full net metering is reasonably fair. When everyone has solar, the whole scheme collapses because production doesn’t align with usage exactly. So every few years during a rate case, they should all work together and shift the value of solar generation accordingly (likely downward). Folks need to take on a little risk with their major purchases because anything else is even more unfair to early and later adopters. The time value of solar production varies year to year and solar owners should be compensated accordingly. Batteries will bring value back to solar by allowing for load shifting, and much like solar, can be done by individuals or utilities.

    Obviously the specific details are muddy as hell and will be contentious, but that’s normal and reasonable compromises usually prevail.

    The reality is some east facing panels in LA aren’t that valuable these days. And the person with east facing panels from 5 years ago shouldn’t get massive long term benefits locked in because they did the install earlier.

    I live in Colorado, have solar, and fully expect the value of my generation to reduce over time. Expecting full retail value of my excess June production to offset power I badly need in Jan to run my heat pump simply isn’t fair.




  • It’s not a “feel good statement”, it’s reality. Gas is terrible. It’s responsible for a significant portion of climate change and gas stoves cause myriad health issues. This is basic stuff. Of course the transition isn’t all sunshine and rainbows but electrification is far from some insurmountable ideal, and it can be quite cost effective.

    The vast majority of HVAC equipment will be replaced on burnout, and when you do the economics of a new gas furnace (and almost certainly AC these days) vs an ASHP, it’s simply not $30-50k extra. There are state and local incentives, the federal tax credits, utility incentives etc., but I agree the IRA programs are on thin ice (even though Biden awarded funds before leaving). I bought a high end cold climate heat pump for just a few grand more than my neighbor who bought a furnace/AC with similar operating costs. You can get a cheaper ASHP and furnace for something in between cost wise. My state has tripled cold climate heat pump incentives and they are now very competitive with gas systems. I work in the industry and live this every day, it’s not some boondoggle, the grid updates necessary aren’t as dramatic as headlines imply and are already well underway to support vehicle electrification and load growth/resiliency. The PNW is quite mild and people are willing to pay for AC anyway due to heat waves (and wildfire smoke), so going straight to heat pumps is a very cost effective solution. Folks are cancelling gas service left and right and the remaining users will be left with rising fixed costs. Plus as I led with, gas is terrible for your family and the climate (and locally where the wells are).





  • Turkeys are super cool, but it’s still a bit silly to apply human values to wild animals. Pretty much all animals are wired to survive while expending the least amount of energy and reducing risk to themselves. Stealing catches from other animals is quite common across species because it’s easier and safer. The reality is that it’s brutal out there. I don’t have diminished admiration for a bear because it found some food in a trash can instead of catching fish from a stream.





  • Maybe I’m too stupid, but how was the baseline actually set? The article implies the 2024 consumption sets the baseline, but we probably don’t know that value yet and they just talk about how the baseline is higher than 2023 (and “current”) usage. Obviously Kigali timelines are slower than we all want, but at the same time having global agreement (mostly, US will probably reneg) and achievable targets may be better than everyone failing (cough Paris). Remember the Montreal protocol is an incredible success story in international cooperation, even if in hindsight it seems like the most basic bare minimum to us today. The problem is the chemical industry is pushing HFOs as HFC replacements, but these are also dogshit because they break down into PFAS.

    We need to go straight to natural refrigeratonts. There are many passionate individuals, companies, and policies driving us towarda this and we’ll get there. For anyone buying refrigerant containing things, look for R290, R744, R600a if you have a choice when you buy refrigerators, heat pump dryers, heat pumps, cars, etc. This is a big deal!


  • Your experience is fine and I’m not denying it, but none of what you said is unique to Tesla at this point (except possibly some of the software). An Ioniq 5 charges faster, can use the superchargers and EA and everyone else’s chargers, rides better, has a heat pump, has better lease deals, etc. You can easily find anecdotes just like yours from former Tesla owners that bought other EVs. Of course you can buy cars that charge slower, or don’t have heat pumps, or other features of the Y, but you seem to be just ignoring competing vehicles that do things as well or better than Tesla.

    If you’re in the EU or have access to Chinese EVs, the competition is even more compelling vs the Tesla offerings.



  • There are tons of Y competitors, just not yet from Lucid. It’s the most popular segment with the most competition. Regarding dealers, it’s not a universal benefit. Service and location matter. Rivian for example is really struggling with this. And ask the folks that spent $70k on a model Y a few years ago during the peak squeeze how great they feel about totally not paying a dealer markup. Software is interesting, Tesla does a good job at OTA but in general everyone I talk to seems to want less tech, fewer subscriptions, less invasive tracking, and manual buttons. Half the people I know want to just drive old Toyotas because of privacy. The tech stack and the software mean nothing to me personally. I do care about ride quality and road noise, and last time I was in a Tesla both were awful. Most folks charge at home and the supercharger network is less of an advantage every day. The people that need to cannonball run in subzero temps will drive ICE for another 5+ years anyway. Heat pumps are helpful but not that much. When it’s actually really cold the COP isn’t much better than 1-1.5, and when it’s mild and COP improves you don’t need much capacity anyway. I remember years ago before Tesla put in heat pumps everyone saying it didn’t matter. Sorry for the meandering rant here, the point here is that the Y is by no means a superior vehicle anymore. I personally value nothing that a Y has over an Ioniq 5, and that’s even ignoring that Musk is a Nazi that deserves universal boycotting.