Edit:
- fixed title format
Former President Trump is the front-runner in a three-way race with President Biden and Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll shared with The Hill on Monday.
In a race between the three candidates, 44 percent of surveyed voters said they backed Trump, while 38 percent said they would vote for Biden. Another 12 percent said they supported Kennedy, and 5 percent said they did not know or were unsure of whom they were going to support.
You see those big shady areas around those lines? Those are margins of error… They’re about four times as wide as the reported difference.
Thus, with a p >.95 I can confidently report that Trump and Biden are not statistically different and thus the same person /s
hahaha, thanks for the comment, made me chuckle!
Looking at the polls: https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/biden-trump-rfk-general/
The first poll:
It seems it says +/- 2% margin of error for total sample, just for this one poll though:
1a:
1b:
1c:
Here is one of the polls:
https://harvardharrispoll.com/topline-april-3/
https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-april-3/
https://harvardharrispoll.com/crosstabs-april-3/