Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

  • @ryathal
    2•30 days ago

    Not only is it compounding, but 3-4% inflation hasn’t happened in over a decade. To get anything comparable to the last three years you have to go back to the 80s.

    • @[email protected]
      5•30 days ago

      I mentioned it in a different comment, but there was a paper written by some economists that compared the current inflation formula with the one they used to use (in use in the 80’s, iirc) which takes borrowing costs such as mortgage into account, and that 9.1 peak pandemic inflation number doubled to 18 something %, with our current 3.4% becoming something north of 9%. So yeah, not great.