French President Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the lower house of parliament and announced fresh elections after his party's poor performance in the EU elections.
Looks like that at best France won’t have a majority, at worst we’ll have Ms Le Pen as a Prime minister (France is a semi presidential regime, and if the President doesn’t have the majority, most of the power shifts toward the prime minister, with a president only relevant for international policy)
I don’t know what kind of 4d chess he thinks he’s playing. Is he hoping for the silent majority to rise up against the FN and vote for his party, does he bet on a coalition after the elections, is he ragequitting, or something else entirely?
Le Pen’s party polls strong but has few allies. My guess is that Macron hopes that even with his party weakened, he can form a broad coalition that would keep Le Pen out. I have no idea how likely that is to work.
LR already said they won’t make a coalition with LREM. They’d be at least as likely to ally with the RN. As for LFI/PC… LREM dislike them at least as much as they do the RN.
Only strategic move I see is let the RN govern until 2027 in the hope they flaceplant hard enough with no plan or coalition to hand an easy win back in the next presidential/legislative elections, which makes twisted sense given that everyone knew they were going to win in '27. Except the risk of that plan backfiring is stratospherically high, especially if the RN lands a majority (which is not unlikely as people were pissed off voting this morning, and will be even more pissed off after a dissolution).
Yes, I and could also see an alliance between Le Pen and whatever UMP (hard right conservatives that used to rule all the time until Sarkozy drove the party into the wall, for non French people) calls itself these days. So, if indeed the snap election is a gamble to keep himself in power, it’s a risky gamble.
If it’s a gamble to let them rule and fail, as you hypothesize, that’s even riskier. Fash have a way of staying in power somewhat longer than their popular support.
Either way it’s not going to be fun days in France for a little while, damn.
let the RN govern until 2027 in the hope they flaceplant hard enough
I can see how this would make sense but isn’t 3 years a bit too short to set up policies and face their consequences? They would have to fail over short-term stuff and unpopular decisions, which (as much as I despise them with every fiber of my body) I don’t think they would be dumb enough to do.
A minority government is almost guaranteed to fail, and that’s theoretically bound to make them unpopular (as it has with every prime minister of Macron’s second mandate).
However, this could backfire if they have a majority. It could also backfire because voters are not necessarily that dumb and might just see through this charade. If anyone can handwave piss-poor performance away, it’s the RN.
Could be a good idea? If the right wing parties won due to low turnout from normal voters then it might be a good idea to call the election while it’s still fresh in everyone’s minds.
One theory some analysts say is that since Macron’s second term ends in 2027, and since it’s his last, if the FN doesn’t govern well, then his party might be able to win again.
Basically, they’re saying that Macron is playing a dangerous game of chess.
I agree with this theory. The public opinion changes very fast in France, it is risky but could work. Besides, the far-right would have kept rising till the presidentials anyways.
What the fuck ? Quoi la baise ?
Looks like that at best France won’t have a majority, at worst we’ll have Ms Le Pen as a Prime minister (France is a semi presidential regime, and if the President doesn’t have the majority, most of the power shifts toward the prime minister, with a president only relevant for international policy)
I don’t know what kind of 4d chess he thinks he’s playing. Is he hoping for the silent majority to rise up against the FN and vote for his party, does he bet on a coalition after the elections, is he ragequitting, or something else entirely?
Le Pen’s party polls strong but has few allies. My guess is that Macron hopes that even with his party weakened, he can form a broad coalition that would keep Le Pen out. I have no idea how likely that is to work.
LR already said they won’t make a coalition with LREM. They’d be at least as likely to ally with the RN. As for LFI/PC… LREM dislike them at least as much as they do the RN.
Only strategic move I see is let the RN govern until 2027 in the hope they flaceplant hard enough with no plan or coalition to hand an easy win back in the next presidential/legislative elections, which makes twisted sense given that everyone knew they were going to win in '27. Except the risk of that plan backfiring is stratospherically high, especially if the RN lands a majority (which is not unlikely as people were pissed off voting this morning, and will be even more pissed off after a dissolution).
Yes, I and could also see an alliance between Le Pen and whatever UMP (hard right conservatives that used to rule all the time until Sarkozy drove the party into the wall, for non French people) calls itself these days. So, if indeed the snap election is a gamble to keep himself in power, it’s a risky gamble.
If it’s a gamble to let them rule and fail, as you hypothesize, that’s even riskier. Fash have a way of staying in power somewhat longer than their popular support.
Either way it’s not going to be fun days in France for a little while, damn.
I can see how this would make sense but isn’t 3 years a bit too short to set up policies and face their consequences? They would have to fail over short-term stuff and unpopular decisions, which (as much as I despise them with every fiber of my body) I don’t think they would be dumb enough to do.
A minority government is almost guaranteed to fail, and that’s theoretically bound to make them unpopular (as it has with every prime minister of Macron’s second mandate).
However, this could backfire if they have a majority. It could also backfire because voters are not necessarily that dumb and might just see through this charade. If anyone can handwave piss-poor performance away, it’s the RN.
They’ll just blame LFI for everything that goes wrong, it works for Macron, why not them.
Could be a good idea? If the right wing parties won due to low turnout from normal voters then it might be a good idea to call the election while it’s still fresh in everyone’s minds.
I guess he hopes Le Pen will do worse than she did in today’s vote.
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Ragequitting or very ballsy move.
One theory some analysts say is that since Macron’s second term ends in 2027, and since it’s his last, if the FN doesn’t govern well, then his party might be able to win again.
Basically, they’re saying that Macron is playing a dangerous game of chess.
Ah, the good old von-Papen-maneuver. This time it will work for sure. What could possibly go wrong?
I agree with this theory. The public opinion changes very fast in France, it is risky but could work. Besides, the far-right would have kept rising till the presidentials anyways.