Yeah but what I’d really need it for is my day job, which takes me to random addresses sometimes I’m gonna do 2/3 in a day which can be far apart. I was looking at the older electric berlingos but they’re still pricy and the range doesn’t cut it unless you go for the latest ones and then it’s far out of my price range. That’s why I’m currently driving a 2003 Kangoo for that and we have a hybrid Lexus ct200h as the family car/my wife.
You really think people will stop trading in their cars after 3 years to get the latest model ? I sincerely doubt it. Rolling over the lease is built into the finance model (it’s not financially smart but that’s a different discussion).
No I don’t doubt that at all. I just don’t think we’re going to have used car forecourts packed solid with EV’s in 7 years time, let alone them also being affordable to the masses.
EV Percentage of total vehicles sales has been rising each year for the past 10 years. Exact number varies country to country but for most western countries it is now between 10 and 20% of sales per annum (obviously 100% in Norway).
Vehicle fleet turns over about every 15 years in Western nations (give or take depending on country) i.e around 90-95% of cars are less than 15 years old (there will always be very old collectors cars, but that’s an entirely different ball game).
So in 7 years time unless EV sales suddenly plummet, at the very least 20% of used cars sales will be EVs. However EV cars are tracking perfectly to S curve of new technology take up (very small number to start then it explodes). So there is every reason to suspect that today’s 20% of sales will be significantly higher. In fact it is expected that they will be the vast majority of new sales in most western countries, particularly those like the UK who are banning NEW ICE sales from 2030. Note that’s not banning the sale of second hand ICE.
There will therefore be a reasonably large number of second hand EVs, an even larger number of hybrid PHEVs (as a lot of those have been sold over the past 5 years) and there will be an even larger number of very very low cost ICE vehicles as people exit the technology.
Every other device I use with a rechargeable battery suffers hugely with degredation. Can you explain why an EV battery would be an exception (cause I would love it to be!).
Surely if its a very common myth that you know to be wrong you should be trying to correct that.
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If they last longer then surely there won’t be much of a used market for electric cars in 2030?
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Which models should I be looking at for this kind of price?
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Yeah but what I’d really need it for is my day job, which takes me to random addresses sometimes I’m gonna do 2/3 in a day which can be far apart. I was looking at the older electric berlingos but they’re still pricy and the range doesn’t cut it unless you go for the latest ones and then it’s far out of my price range. That’s why I’m currently driving a 2003 Kangoo for that and we have a hybrid Lexus ct200h as the family car/my wife.
You really think people will stop trading in their cars after 3 years to get the latest model ? I sincerely doubt it. Rolling over the lease is built into the finance model (it’s not financially smart but that’s a different discussion).
No I don’t doubt that at all. I just don’t think we’re going to have used car forecourts packed solid with EV’s in 7 years time, let alone them also being affordable to the masses.
EV Percentage of total vehicles sales has been rising each year for the past 10 years. Exact number varies country to country but for most western countries it is now between 10 and 20% of sales per annum (obviously 100% in Norway).
Vehicle fleet turns over about every 15 years in Western nations (give or take depending on country) i.e around 90-95% of cars are less than 15 years old (there will always be very old collectors cars, but that’s an entirely different ball game).
So in 7 years time unless EV sales suddenly plummet, at the very least 20% of used cars sales will be EVs. However EV cars are tracking perfectly to S curve of new technology take up (very small number to start then it explodes). So there is every reason to suspect that today’s 20% of sales will be significantly higher. In fact it is expected that they will be the vast majority of new sales in most western countries, particularly those like the UK who are banning NEW ICE sales from 2030. Note that’s not banning the sale of second hand ICE.
There will therefore be a reasonably large number of second hand EVs, an even larger number of hybrid PHEVs (as a lot of those have been sold over the past 5 years) and there will be an even larger number of very very low cost ICE vehicles as people exit the technology.
People will buy what makes sense for them.
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Every other device I use with a rechargeable battery suffers hugely with degredation. Can you explain why an EV battery would be an exception (cause I would love it to be!).
Surely if its a very common myth that you know to be wrong you should be trying to correct that.
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